Tropical Storm Florence 40 Miles SE Of Florence SC This Morning, Moving SW At 5mph. Wind/Rain Impacts Begin Today

Saturday Morning September 15, 2018 7:00am

Chief Meteorologist Chris White

 

Good Saturday morning. Winds conditions overspreading the area and those should continue to increase today. Sustained winds will be 20-30mph and gusts could reach 50mph at times, slightly higher along the eastern slope. Wind Advisory will take us through Sunday Morning when wind should slowly weaken slowly.

I didnt have a lot of time to do a ton of work on these graphics overnight as our obligations expand but I agree with GSP on these totals.

Florence remains a tropical storm this morning with winds of 50mph and higher gusts.  Florence is 15 miles West of Pawley’s Island SC and is creeping WSW at 5mph. Florence will likely be downgraded to a tropical depression later today. 

Synopticlly: 

High Pressure in the Ohio Valley Will shift east today releasing its block on Florence that currently is restricting its movement West. Florence will start to pick up speed later today and will move to a position near or just North Of Columbia SC by tonight. A trough will move SE and pick Florence up by Monday Morning and push it through the Northeast and out to sea. Florence will at that time finally be a memory but the recovery will be in full swing. 

 

Impacts: 

Winds: Increasing now and very gusty with gusts to 22mph. Become sustained 10-20 today with gusts to 50mph, especially when the heaviest rain develops this evening. I expect power outages to grow here going into the night. Wind advisory until Sunday Morning at 8am looks very well placed by NWS.  Some damage is likely to trees and power lines so be prepared of the possibi,it’s of losing power tonight for an extended amount of time. Weak structures could experience minor damage.


Rainfall: Scattered at first this morning but as day goes on becoming more widespread by this evening. Rainfall will become heavy as the night goes on tonight. I think total storm total accumulation we forecast  of 6-10 inches is very well done and see no reason for raising or lowering those. Two heavy strips of rain are likely. One from Charlotte up 77 to I-40 and then NW along and North Of 321 toward Virginia (includes Alexander, Catawba, and Caldwell. Then the second is of course those upslope areas that are always favored. In those two area up to 15 inches of rain remain possible. Everywhere else should fall righ in that 6-10 range.

 

Tornado: While our 8 County area will be on the east and northeast side of Florence, the system will be in a weaker state and the tornado risk is less than 2%. Although we cannot completely rule them out this evening or overnight tonight the chances are low. Tornadoes in tropical cyclones are generally weak and can occur so quick that they spin up and are gone in between radar frames. If a tornado warning or two should be needed then move to an interior room quickly. Tornadoes from landfalling tropical systems are normally weak and are almost always rain wrapped, and not visible.