The Week Ahead + September Debut

Good evening, Foothills Weather Nation! It's September, which means a lot of things for North Carolina and the Atlantic coastline in general. As Chief Meteorologist Chris White wrote yesterday it is officially Meteorological Fall. But! As seasons are only a suggestion for Sweet Caroline we will see our general summery pattern of heat, humidity, and just enough energy to suggest a thunderstorm at some point nearly every day. Here are a couple of additional graphics I'd like to share with you about the long range forecast of September:

 NWS Long Range One Month Temperature Forecast Valid for September 2018

NWS Long Range One Month Temperature Forecast Valid for September 2018

This is looking to be an overall warmer than normal September for most of the country as all but 2 states within this graphic have an area within it a 30% or higher chance of being above normal temperature. We will dive into this further later.

 NWS Long Range One Month Precipitation Forecast Valid for September 2018

NWS Long Range One Month Precipitation Forecast Valid for September 2018

Not nearly as much of the country will be experiencing higher precipitation chances, but we are seeing that the typical regions that experience storms regularly in September are predicted to above normal precipitation for September. 

As mentioned before- hot and humid! 

Onto the stormy part of September: 

Atlantic 090218.png

We have three areas of focus in the Atlantic basin at this time. Let's start off with our "heavy hitter", Tropical Storm Florence. Florence is the sixth named storm of the season with  maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. This looks as though it will be the little heat engine couldn't as there isn't much promising further development. As she treks towards warmer waters she will also be met with higher wind shear- a critical factor for even the strongest of tropical cyclones. The GFS and Euro make no current suggestion of a US landfall for this storm. 

Next up to bat is Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph. Seven may only be a little unnamed storm, but it shows aspiration to be Tropical Storm Gordon as of Monday afternoon or evening. With it's promise and proximity our medium weight holds the stage of our current attention as far as tropical cyclones go. As the graphic depicts above, current forecast track has Seven, likely then Gordon, making a bee-line straight for the Big Easy which is under a tropical storm watch. This has the likelihood of bringing a bounty of energy and moisture into the Southern US by the end of our work week. Further forecasting will require time as development and track progresses.

Lastly, and certainly least we have Disturbance 2 which is hardly much of a disturbance at all really with a 0% chance of formation in the next two days and only a 20% chance of formation in the next 5 days. Neither the GFS nor the Euro make anything more of this weak collection of thunderstorms. Alas, Mother Nature has her plans, so we will wait and see what she has in store for us.

Onto our Week Ahead which has two main weather events and thus we will be broken into two sections:

Short Term Forecast (Tonight-Wednesday)

Our highly featured Mid Atlantic center of high pressure hold's its stage during this time of the forecast. This of course will bring it's ever familiar bounty of humidity and heat, but this will also create a more neutered convective situation than one might see for such heat and moisture. This isn't to say a pop-up thunderstorm or shower is out of the question during this time, but what will produce will be a small endeavor. From tonight through Wednesday Forecast Area (FA) has low precipitation probabilities (10-30%), mostly to partly sunny skies, light winds from the east-northeast, diurnal highs in the upper 80's/lower 90's and diurnal lows hovering just around 70 degrees. 

Long Term Forecast (Wednesday night - Sunday)

Starting late into Wednesday evening is when we can see our high pressure center begin to recede away from our coastline as it is side-swiped by a Canadian high pressure center moving southeast. While this doesn't suggest any troughs or fronts for the Eastern US, this does help with convective abilities, bringing in the typical 30-50% chance of rain and thunderstorms for the later half of our work week. This could ramp up higher depending on Seven's development and track! For now, anticipate for Thursday through Sunday partly cloudy conditions, light southeasterly winds, temperatures maintaining around 90 degrees and 70 degrees for the daily highs and nightly lows.

Thank you very much for reading! Have a wonderful Labor Day!