Friday Morning 9/7/18
Chief Meteorologist Chris White
There has been a ton of information flow through your social media feeds about Florence.First of all, past 5 days out right now we have no clue exactly where Florence will go. No one does at this juncture.Be careful who you are following and getting your information from because some are trying to panic you just so you will come to their site and read updates.
There are little pieces of the puzzle that still need to come together. The first occurred today with the weakening of Florence from a hurricane to a tropical storm. That weakening was due to SW winds shearing the system off to the Northeast. Now that an upper level low is developing to the SW of Florence the shear will become weaker and more conducive to rapid reintensification. Florence will also move over much warmer water over the next 24-36 hours.
Now the third thing we don't yet know. We don't know how quick Florence is going to restrengthen. The longer it stays weak the further West it would most likely come. We just don't know how quick this is going to happen. Model guidance is all over the place because we just haven't had any good samples of the atmosphere yet around and ahead of Florence. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to go out starting Monday and fly the system but they could start earlier. Also the Bermuda Weather Service will be launching balloons starting tomorrow to get one sample.
The fourth question we have to ask is how strong will the high pressure in the North Atlantic become? Historically model guidance doesn't handle these well. So no one knows yet. We will get a better handle on this system over the next 24 - 48 hours as more data gets injected into the models.
It does appear that the East Coast will see some sort of impact from Florence whether its from larger waves causing erosion due to it's close pass to the shore, or whether it is a land falling tropical system.
The earliest impacts would be felt along the coast is Wednesday. So Coastal areas, you should be in planning mode for the possibility of a tropical system. This includes making sure your Hurricane Preparedness Kits are stocked. It is September after all and you should be prepared for any system that could threaten.