Good Thursday morning to everyone across the region…we have had a few nice weather days here around Christmas but changes are already underway and it looks to take us to the end of 2018 on a wet note…what else is new?
Water vapor imagery shows our next storm system lifting up into the Plains States, that storm will slowly drag a moisture laden front through the Southeast over the next 36-48 hours. Rainfall will move into the region later today and will pick up in intensity with a peak coming early on Friday.
Flood Watches are in effect for the potential of 2-4 inches of rain across the region through early Saturday morning. This looks to be the first of as many as three different storm systems to impact the region over the next week. So, why are we entering into such an active pattern once again?
As you can see above it’s pretty simple. A battle ground is being drawn out across the Southeast US as our part of the world will be in between a Western North America trough and ridging in the upper levels across the SW Atlantic. This setup is delivering prolonged southwest flow across the region. Pieces of the western trough will eject from time to time and with the already established sub-tropical jet providing extra moisture, the stage is set for more heavy and potentially excessive rainfall to end the calendar year. Many of the areas that have broken yearly records will continue to add to those amounts while new records could be broken in other areas.
This first rainfall event should be out of the area by Saturday giving the region a brief break. However moisture will return on Sunday brining showers to the region on Sunday and then a third and possibly heavier batch of rain could move in on Monday...possibly jeopardizing any outdoor plans for New Years Eve…that is something we will monitor closely.
Regardless rainfall totals looks to really pile up over the next five days…if you are located in a flood prone area, remain weather aware through the next several days as any of these storm systems could produce flash flooding…