• Chief Meteorologist Chris

2019-20 Chick Fil A Winter Outlook, December Edition


Hello folks. I hope you are all doing really well. I am a couple days late in getting this out due to a severe sickness that jumped up and bit me. You saw our Winter Outlook that we issued on November 4th. I have updated the headlines but not a lot has changed in the forecast.

Meteorological Winter is underway and Meteorological Fall went out on the wet side. Winter came in windy and that sure looks to be favored this Winter. This Winter is likely going to be headlined with a very active storm track. You have seen it already in November and that is just a dose of what I believe is to come. If you recall 2018-2019 Winter came in with a bang and by this time last year we were preparing for a significant winter storm. This year is much different though. This upcoming first week of Meteorological Winter is going to feature temperatures slightly below normal with a quiet pattern. The pattern rapidly evolves coming into the second week though. The active storm track gets going and things turn wet. Right now we do not see a significant signal that a winter storm is headed our way but the pattern sure turns favorable by mid December. We will see.

Ok, here are our headlines. They are fairly self explanatory but I will hit on them. Man I could use a good juicy Chick Fil A Sandwich and just starring at this logo makes my mouth salivate. LOL. Ok, sorry, squirrel, well chicken moment.

1)Over the course of this Meteorological Winter we expect that the drought conditions that developed over early Fall will continue to improve. Nearly all of our area is almost void of the drought or abnormally dry conditions now.

2) Several major airmass changes are likely throughout winter. It looks like we will go a week and be mild as the northern jet stream retreats back to the North. Then right on its heals cold fronts will plow through ushering in much colder air. For that reason alone it looks like we will likely experience a lot of wind this winter.

3) We do think that the polar jet stream will make a few trips South this Winter and we could see a couple brutal cold outbreaks deep into the Winter Season.

4) As stated December has started tranquil but the pattern really becomes stormy next week, going right through the middle of the month. This could mean the chance of any type of precipitation as we go deeper into December. Stay tuned but be careful about seeing hype casts that forecast snowfall and ice storms weeks out at a time. This pattern is going to be really progressive and nailing down exact precipitation types could take right up until two or three days before a storm hits. If we haven't said much about it then there likely isn't a reason to be concerned too much, well, that is, unless some harmful death comes over me and we are unable to continue. You know, little things like that that we do not expect. Alright, onward!

Once we average everything out from this winter in the temperature department we think we will average out near normal.

A very active weather pattern should make the precipitation values average out above normal by the end of Meteorological Winter.

Here is a look at the average number of icing events that we see each winter. Icing events doesn't mean that they are all damaging and catastrophic. Any sleet that falls from the sky or any rain that freezes on contact is considered an icing event no matter the intensity.

Average icing events with our outlook overlayed on top. With the cold air damming structure setup we do expect above normal ice this winter.

And the big one. The snowfall outlook. First here is the average snowfall we receive in inches.

With the moist profiles of the active storm track we are expecting above average snowfall in the forecast area this year. Holding onto this active storm track is key though. We may over achieve in just one snow event again this year.

Stay tuned and we will keep you updated this Winter.


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