Watches/Warnings/Advisories in effect:
Winter Storm Watch for NW Burke, NW Caldwell, and NW McDowell
Good Monday morning everyone! I hope that you had a great weekend! If you have today off for Presidents Day, lucky you!
It has been a damp, cool, and raw weekend across the forecast area. Today we get a reprieve from that. Showers will move out of the area this morning and should give way to a fairly decent day. We will see partly cloudy skies with highs approaching the mid to upper 50’s, if we are lucky enough some folks could top 60 F.
Our attention then turns to the west as a new storm system get organized over the Oklahoma and Texas. An area of low pressure develops and will move into the area late Tuesday evening. This will spread precipitation in the area. While that storm system moves into the area, High pressure establishes itself over New England. That will funnel cold dry air into the area in our typical wedge set up. So there is some growing concern that locations along and north of Interstate 40 could see a brief wintry mix changing over to freezing rain by the dawn hours of Wednesday. We could see some glazing of ice in portions of the forecast area.
We should see that high pressure move out over the Northern Atlantic Ocean, leading to warmer air changing over any frozen precipitation. Precipitation will continue to through the day Wednesday into Thursday. The rainfall could be heavy at times. We could see 2-3” of in this time frame. That could lead to some flash flooding.
Temperatures will rise Wednesday night into Thursday with rain continuing. We could get into the low 60’s by Thursday afternoon. We stay fairly mild through Friday which could afford enough instability to pop off a few thunderstorms. The rainy pattern continues through the weekend with rain chances on Saturday and Sunday.
By the end of the weekend the area could see up to 5” of rain in some locations which could lead to some flooding issues.