Good Monday evening to everyone. Today was a nice day across the region with plenty of sunshine and temperatures that were up in the 70's.
We hope you enjoyed the nice weather because things are in the process of changing again. You may have noticed just prior to sunset that clouds were already on the increase. That will continue for the rest of tonight and into your Tuesday.
A look at the surface map shows a light easterly flow across the Carolinas. That will help advect low level moisture into the region tomorrow, that means a mostly cloudy day for the region and by late day or evening could yield a few showers moving in from south to north.
While that is going on at the surface, southwest flow aloft will strengthen and provide overrunning of moisture of the cooler air down below.
By Wednesday, deep moisture will be overhead the region thanks to a strong upper low across the Plains States and ridging just off the east coast of Florida. The combination of southeast upslope and southwest winds aloft means that showers will be numerous starting Wednesday and lasting through Halloween (Thursday).
A vigorous cold front will pass through on Halloween, this front could also produce a few thunderstorms...and that is something we may have to monitor if the front were to pass through during peak heating. Thunderstorms could be on the strong side.
Regardless, this storm system is going to bring the third significant rainfall event to the Southeast in a two week period. This has the potential to put another dent in the current drought. 1-3 inches of rain is possible according to the Weather Prediction Center through Friday...
After the rain exits, attention will turn to the incoming cold blast that will impact the Carolinas, the coldest yet of the fall season.
A large trough will move into the Eastern United States by Saturday. Meanwhile some ridging over Alaska will help dislodge some arctic air into the United States. The Pacific ridging combined with a weak Greenland Block will force the cold pretty far south. For early November standards, this is not all that unusual.
The end result will be the coldest air yet this season and the potential for a frost of freeze is in play, especially Sunday and Monday morning of next week. A freeze appears to be likely in the mountains on Western North Carolina including those mountain communities in the F.A.N coverage area (Little Switzerland, Jonas Ridge, Globe, Patterson).