Good Monday everyone! I hope that you have enjoyed the beautiful weekend! This was the first time in a long while one of the two weekend days didn't see measurable rainfall or snowfall.
Yesterday we topped out in the upper 60's to low 70's. We know that when we reach those temperatures in early January, the bottom has to drop out. That will likely happen this week.
Today will be mostly clouds across the area. A weak wedge will build into the area, and give us a mostly cloudy day. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 50's. A weak cold front will move into the area late this afternoon into the early evening hours. That may trigger a very stray shower or two along the Interstate 40 corridor.
A stronger cold front is poised to move through the area on Tuesday. This will likely be a dry front. We will warm up on Tuesday ahead of this front. Temperatures on Tuesday could push into the low to mid 60's. A strong arctic cold front will move through the area. Temperatures will drop big time.
High pressure will move into the area. High temperatures Wednesday - Friday will not get out of the low to mid 40's. Lows will be in the low to mid 20's. Wednesday will be quiet breezy with Northwest winds.
Then all eyes turn to the weekend. A potential winter weather event could affect the area. A storm system will form along the Gulf Coast and then transition to the Atlantic Coast. This could spread some wintry precipitation into the area. There is more questions than answers right now. The pattern is favorable for wintry weather. The one questions is, will we have enough cold air in place. Right now Rain, Snow, Sleet and Freezing Rain is possible across the area. It will take a few more days to figure out some details.
Right now the Weather Prediction Center has our area under a 10% chance of seeing measurable wintry precipitation and the Mountains with a 30% chance.
The latest run of the Euro Ensembles shows favorable support of some wintry weather in the area this weekend.
The GFES (GFS Ensemble) shows a mixed signal on what type of precipitation will fall this weekend.
So in short, it is just to early to tell what type of precipitation will fall. We are watching and will continue to update throughout the week.