Good Sunday Morning. It is cold out there this morning. Temps range from the low 20's in our mountains regions of our Western Counties (NW Burke, NW Caldwell, NW McDowell), Mid 20's across the Western Foothills (Greater Burke, Greater Caldwell, Greater McDowell), Upper 20's across the Eastern Foothills (Alexander, Catawba, & Lincoln Counties), and around 30 degrees in the Southern Foothills (Cleveland & Rutherford). Clear skies with high pressure centered right overhead have provided optimal radiational heating this morning. This makes this the coldest morning since April 17th of this year. High temps today are going to be a good 15 degrees below average again.
(Sunday through Monday)
Clouds are going to increase as we go through the day today. This is ahead of our next weather maker. Low pressure will develop along the Gulf Coast, move Northeast tonight, and spread moisture into the area during the day on Monday. Ahead of this moisture maker will be a cold air damming event East of the mountains. Firmly entrenched here moisture will begin overrunning the shallow layer of cold air Monday Morning. If the moisture arrives just right a few wet snowflakes MAY briefly mix in with the rain but I really think that will be isolated. Temperatures will be between 33-36°. It will be a cold raw day for sure but I think temps are going to be just warm enough to prevent an travel issues. The only real concern I would have are the eastern facing slopes of the Blue Ridge. Very isolated freezing rain may briefly impact those areas in NW Burke, NW Caldwell, and NW McDowell. Elsewhere this will be a liquid rain event through Monday, an efficient one at that. High temps on Monday we are thinking mid 40's but that may be optimistic, something we will watch and may have to bump those highs down a bit further.
(Monday Night thru Tuesday)
The main concern with this system is the very heavy rainfall that will accompany it. As the low moves over the area late Monday Evening precipitation rates will be extremely high for this time of year, likely nearing 1.75 inches per hour at times. Upslope flow will be a player as well during this evening with 10-20 knot upslope developing Monday Evening ahead of the low. The weather service outlines this too in their Hazardous Weather Discussion. These rain rates could cause some localized flooding issues. The Weather Predictions Center has placed our area in the "slight risk" for flash flooding on Monday through Monday Night.
Additional low pressure will develop along the front on Monday Night to our South and move East. That low will move up the East Coast on Tuesday bringing another band of lighter rain with it during the day on Tuesday. We are optimistic rainfall will end by Tuesday Afternoon. As that low pressure moves Northeast of us the backside will introduce winds that downslope and compress, thus drying us out. Temps overnight Monday will rise a little by Tuesday Morning into the low and mid 40's. The high temperatures likely will be around 50 to the low 50's Tuesday Afternoon. Outside of our friends in NW Burke, NW McDowell, and NW Caldwell skies will start partially clear Tuesday Evening and into Tuesday Night. The mountains will remain mostly cloudy. Lows Tuesday Night fall back to the upper 20's in NW Mountains to the low 30's elsewhere, but all of the area reaches the freezing mark again by Wednesday Morning
(Wednesday - Friday)
The forecast elopes us during this period. You will notice our 7 day keeping things dry for this period. This unfortunately will most likely not verify. The next low pressure system now looks like it will come in some sort of cut off low or upper low that develops over Texas and Louisiana. This will spread clouds quickly back into the area on Wednesday. Precipitation will follow but there is some variance as to how quick the precipitation arrives and exits. Certainly looks like another wet period Wednesday Night through Friday though. Another challenge to this forecast is the precipitation types. You will likely start seeing graphics pop up today with the potential of ice during this period. It is something we are watching close as well because temperatures will nose down close to freezing by Thursday Morning. I think that certainly by Friday any precipitation type issues will have ended and everything is back to liquid rain before ending. So continue to monitor this forecast as it evolves. It could be the 6th Friday in a row with some form of precipitation impacting the area.