Comfortable Weather to Continue in the Short Term, Signs of a Summer Heat Wave Down the Road...


Good Wednesday morning to everyone, we continue a magnificent weather pattern across the Southeast US but there are signs of changes on the way... First off, a look at today's weather...expect plenty of sunshine, low humidity and a slight breeze with temps in the 70's...can't ask for much better considering it is now Mid-May...




Thursday will also be a comfortable day in terms of humidity, high temps will be a bit warmer reaching close to 80 degrees...but it will be on Friday when wholesale changes will be underway. Surface high pressure will be off the Southeast Coast by Friday and that will deliver an increase in low level moisture across the Carolinas...








The increase in moisture can been seen on this map as Precipitable Water Values (PWAT's) will be on the increase by this weekend. Since we will be on the western periphery of this ridge, enough instability may be in place for an isolated shower or storm chance by Saturday...the best chances would be right along the Blue Ridge where differential heating can help initiate convection..




As we head toward next week and beyond the current 7-Day forecast period, all eyes are on the weather at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. A huge trough looks to be developing in the extended range in the Western US, while a stout ridge may be in the works for the Eastern US. Considering that we will be in the last week of May at that point, a big Southeast ridge usually equates to a heat wave.





This a developing weather story that we will keep an eye on...could our region see its first 90-degree temperatures of 2019? It's very possible to probable in the extended range. Below is ensemble temperature guidance (Not a Forecast!) for Hickory through the end of the month, as you can see its trending toward hot weather.






As a forecaster it will be interesting to see what happens in the extended range, usually with the first projected heat wave of the summer you can identify model bias that helps with forecasting subsequent events...


Check our 7-Day forecast daily to see where this pattern may be heading!

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