Continued Stormy Weather for the Midweek then Signs of a return to Heat...

Good Wednesday morning to everyone, the past couple days have provided active weather for the Western Carolinas in the form of heavy rain producing thunderstorms that have persisted well into the night time hours...




Looking at what is going on with the synoptics...Bermuda High is well established and has provided a humid and unstable atmosphere across the Eastern part of the country...meanwhile a zonal flow jet is established across the mid-section of the US is providing a jet to give the atmosphere a spark for thunderstorm development...there is one specific piece of energy diving into the Rockies and will eject out into the Plains before moving east. This is going to yield a severe weather event across the Mississippi River Valley and the Plains on Wednesday and then a chance at more severe weather further east on Thursday...


The bottom line for us in the Western Carolinas...thunderstorm activity will remain elevated in the short term with the highest chances coming Thursday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front and upper trough.





As we head into the weekend, things will change up a bit...the upper trough that slides east will deepen across New England on Friday while another upper trough retrogrades back to the Western US... In-between, the Bermuda High will flatten a bit and also retrograde to a position over the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This means a return to heat and a lowering of storm chances. Friday and Saturday could end up being totally dry but that will only be temporary as surface flow will veer back to a southerly direction pumping in the humidity once again...





This pattern as you can see on the 5-Day averages will lock in for the weekend and the first part of next week...so prepare for another heat wave to set in across parts of the East. Thankfully, the ridge will be centered to our south rather than overhead...regardless, 90's look to make a return in full force as you can see on the ensemble guidance...






Then a little sneak-peek past the current 7-Day package...for the last week of June, high pressure aloft centers back toward the Plains and that could leave an opening to more storms in the Southeast, either from a generally uncapped atmosphere that with daytime heating could lead to afternoon storms.


And we will also need to monitor any jet energy that follows the so-called "ring of fire". The flow aloft could direct upper energy toward the Carolinas for an additional trigger...






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