Good Thursday morning, we have been talking about a return to wet weather across the Southeast US including the Carolinas. This blog post is to go over the players that is going to drive this active period coming up...
First off, we have abundant tropical moisture that has spread into the Southeast US thanks in part to a feature that festered over the Southern Gulf of Mexico...as you can see on this map, PWAT‘s are running in the 1.75 inch range to about 2.25 inches. In more simple terms...there is a lot of water content in the atmosphere.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a closed upper low across the Southern Plains will slowly move east of the Mississippi River by Friday, that will give the atmosphere some dynamics aloft to help lift all that tropical moisture.
This will be a slow mover and will eventually stall out Across the Southeast this weekend. A blocking ridge over Southeast Canada is going to create a logjam in the upper levels.
There will also be assistance in the lower levels of the atmosphere as well, a surface high in Canada, a lingering convergence boundary and a weak surface low will all provide an additional focusing mechanism for precipitation.
All kinds of forcing mechanisms will be in play include a prolonged Southeast upslope flow starting on Friday night and Saturday and last into early next week.
All signs continue to show the potential for copious amounts of precip through the forecast period. Please remain Weather Aware as flash flooding threat could start to evolve especially later this weekend.