First true springtime pattern to emerge the next several days, spring-like rains possible...


Good Wednesday evening to everyone, it was such a beautiful day across the region as temperatures were in the low 70's for the majority of the coverage area under mostly sunny conditions. The overall mild to at times warm weather is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. However there will be a couple rain opportunities showing up during the forecast period.






Tomorrow is going to be almost a carbon-copy of today, westerly winds at the mid levels and light winds at the surface will bring another warm day to the region. Low to mid 70's are expected in our coverage area with upper 60's along the Blue Ridge Parkway.


The one difference for tomorrow...clouds will increase during the day as the next storm system will move along this fast zonal flow. As you can see there is a fairly dynamic system moving east toward the Mississippi River on Thursday, that will help fire up showers and a few thunderstorm through the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley Region...the leading edge of the precip should approach the Southern Appalachians by tomorrow evening.




The upper level energy across the Tennessee Valley will provide a soggy Friday across the region and cooler temps (60's) due to clouds and expected precip. Fortunately the dynamics with this system will be fading as it approaches the Carolinas meaning a diminished thunderstorm and severe weather threat. As this moves east, our next storm system will be moving into the Western part of the country...



The weekend is looking to be about a 75/25 split in terms of nice weather. Skies clear out Friday night and will persist through Saturday with no real change in airmass. Temps could very well blowtorch well into the 70's in our coverage area and a few 80's can't be ruled out once you drop into portions of South Carolina and Georgia.


Things will change quickly on Sunday as the next storm system, a potentially more dynamic system will take shape across the Plains. Multiple pieces of energy will gradually consolidate into a larger upper level trough...note the deeper southwest flow as this trough moves east? This will help to scoop a moist upper level flow into the Eastern third of the country...




The flow closer to the low levels will also respond in according with the approaching trough...so the ingredients in terms of moisture content will be quite high as we get to Sunday Night and into the start of the new week.







Once we get to Monday, a strengthening upper low may start to close off near the Tennessee Valley...the exact location of the upper low is still in question on the models...but if the GFS for example is accurate, we could be dealing with quite a dynamic storm system with abundant moisture and an overall mild airmass. Could the Southeast be setting itself up for a severe weather event? We shall see...




One thing we feel more certain about is a return to a wet pattern...combining Friday's event with anything that occurs early next week, a good part of the south could receive significant rainfall.






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