Friday Morning Rubber Duck Outlook
Good Friday Morning. Time to make that trip to the library and pick up that favorite book or find some sort of indoor entertainment for the weekend.
The upper level low pressure responsible for pumping all of this moisture into the area has really matured overnight over the Oklahoma and Arkansas line. It has also developed a strong tropical connection. A surface low pressure is developing back over Alabama too. This means the upstream heavy rainfall will not only be able to move into our area, it will expand. That surface low will move into Northern Georgia and eventually move through our area by this afternoon taking a big slug of rain with it. Rainfall of 1 - 3 inches will be likely today but with antecedent conditions being dry, we shouldn't see many flooding issues if any today. Rainfall rates will be near 2 inches per hour at times so do look for a lot of ponding of water on area roadways.
This weekend continues to look extremely wet. We now have a high risk of flash flooding both Saturday and Sunday across the area. A back door cold front will move through the area tonight enhancing rainfall coverage again. So while we expect some breaks in the rainfall this afternoon, more steady and heavier rain is likely tonight into Saturday. Additionally with the breaks of rain, some instability could develop leading to thunderstorms. Depending on instability one or two of these storms could produce a damaging wind gust. It wouldn't take much to tap into some higher winds aloft and any thunderstorm this afternoon should have no issues tapping into that.
Total rainfall on the order of 6 - 8 inches continues to be plausible. Along the Eastern slopes though amounts of up to 12 inches cannot be ruled out up that way (Roughly along the Blue Ridge Parkway).
The wet pattern will stick with us right into next week before a cold front can push through the area either Tuesday or Wednesday and push this cut off upper low out of here. We will fine tune that forecast as we get closer.
Above is the regional view showing torrential rain over Atlanta that will move in our direction for later this morning. Below is the water vapor imagery of the upper low responsible for this rainfall.