• Chief Meteorologist Chris

Heavy Rain And The Potential For Strong Storms Monday Evening. Weekend Not Bad!

Hey there and good Saturday Morning! I hope you are having a great weekend so far and are getting some time to relax. If you are working this weekend I hope your day is going smooth.

Mostly cloudy skies this morning are slowly clearing and much of the afternoon will be mostly sunny. High temps will be in the low and mid 70's across the area. A warm front will lift north across the area on Sunday and bring the chance of a few more widely scattered showers with it. High temps for Sunday will be warm too, in the low 70's across the area. Chance of rain on Saturday is only 10% but we will increase those rain chances to 40% for Sunday. It looks like there will be a pretty significant cap to overcome on Sunday Afternoon due to more cloud clover so this is the limiting factor for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. If a thunderstorm is able to develop though it could become quite strong. Lapse rates aloft are pretty steep so some isolated damaging wind gusts are possible. Some small hail could occur too but as previously stated we believe it will be pretty difficult to bust the cap Sunday Afternoon. Sunday should end up being mostly cloudy.

Its Spring and you know that this is our main severe weather season as the warm spring air tries to win out against the cooler winter air. That is what's going to happen on Monday. Low pressure develops near the ARKLATX region and slowly move East. Ahead of this low pressure system flow will veer to the South. As flow veers to the South some upslope flow rain showers will be possible on Monday Morning. The slow progression of this low pressure to the East means that the best dynamics for severe weather could arrive near sunset on Monday. That being said CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), a measurement in joules per kg of atmospheric energy, will be upwards of 2500 j/kg. For severe weather this time of year we look for about 1500 j/kg so we will easily have enough energy to spark a few strong and severe storms. The question is how much of this energy will wane before the best lift arrives into the area. The CAPE starts to drop considerably after sunset Monday but another aspect we have to look at is sheer (the change of winds with height, direction, and/or speed). Sheer looks pretty impressive on Monday Evening with upwards of 30 to 40 knots. So that could allow updrafts to tap into some of the CAPE. Damaging winds and some hail look to be the main threat from any severe storms. The tornado threat is what we call non-zero, which means that tornadoes are not likely but the risk is not zero either. In other words, not a huge deal on the tornado side of things. Anytime you have thunderstorms that could become severe there is a very low chance that a brief and weak tornado could spin up, so we highlight these days as non zero risk days. Remember wind is wind whether its spinning or moving in a straight line.

Futurecast Monday 4:00pm....Likely a little too quick with convection initiation. We will montior it though

Futurecast Radar 8:00pm Monday this timing appears to be more likely but we will watch for changes

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist

Foothills Weather Network


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