Good afternoon, Foothills Weather Nation! Summer sure is flying by, isn't it? We are finally on the week of the 4th as Monday brings us the first day of July. Let's take a look at what you can expect for the holiday week.
Near Term Forecast (Monday and Tuesday)
The overarching theme for the entire week is oppressive heat and oppressive humidity. The start to out week being Monday and Tuesday we will see a slight bit less humidity, but this will still leave us in the mid 90's with the heat index. Due to the moderate humidity levels we forecast about a 20% chance of rain, and certainly not leaving out the possibility of a stray thunderstorm in the midst. Daily highs in the low 90's, heat index in the mid 90s, mild winds of 3-6 mph from the northwest on Monday and southwest on Tuesday.
Short Term Forecast (Wednesday-Friday)
As our general flow moves from the northwest to the southwest we see a solid increase in humidity and overall energy as a ridge that once sat with NC at it's peak has moved offshore putting our region at the right area for all of the Gulf heat and moisture to pour right over us. All of this moisture, energy, and heat moving into the area increases our chance for afternoon convective thunderstorms. On average we see our precipitation probabilities pop up starting at noon and trending downward right after sunset with slight chances on through the morning hours. This, like many years, does propose a chance for showers or thunderstorms during the Fourth of July festivities, so come prepared for the worst and hope for the best. We will be updating everyone on this area of the forecast as we get closer. Overall, daily highs in the mid 90's, heat index could likely approach 100, isolated afternoon thunderstorms with localized heavy downpours, gusts, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning likely. Overnight lows will hover just around 70, and while this does sound manageable temperature wise for nighttime outdoor fun, please remember to bring bug spray as the mosquitoes are out in full force.
Long Term Forecast (Saturday and Sunday)
This section of the forecast seems to be the hottest as a short lived heat wave looks to propagate into the Atlantic coastline next weekend. Synoptically, there isn't much of a change between the middle part fo the week and the weekend, but the continued flow of hot, moist Gulf air does look like it's going to build onto us a bit. Even higher chance of precipitation during the weekend across all of NC.
Thank you for reading! I hope you have a wonderful 4th!