Good Tuesday afternoon...the late May heat wave continues across the Southeast US, a 180 degree difference from what our part of the world experienced just one year ago when the region was dealing with a super moisture-laden pattern filled with excessive rainfall events, flooding and mudslides.
Current satellite image shows a tranquil but hot weather pattern this afternoon across the Southeast. High pressure is in place and little in the way of clouds building at this time due to the sinking and compressing (warming) of the airmass.
Looking at the country as a whole, Southeast ridging continues to dominate, with the highest heights centered over Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile a trough over the Rockies keeps the severe weather and flash flood threat going over the Plains States and streaking through the Midwest, Upper Ohio Valley Region...
This pattern is going to remain in place through the next 48 hours or so...afternoon high temps both today are going to be in the low to mid 90's with mid-upper 60's at night. Thankfully humidity levels are just modest at this time, that is keeping heat index values from reaching critical levels...regardless its still very hot for late May. Temps are running 10-14 degrees above normal values in some areas.
By late Thursday and especially on Friday, a few changes may begin to take place as the Southeast Ridge is flattened somewhat by the current Rockies trough as it moves east and shears out.
This may help take the edge off the current heat wave, getting us back closer to normal values. So instead of being 10 or more degrees above normal, we may be talking more in the 5-8 degree range above normal.
The shift in the ridge placement may also allow more in the way of upper energy to break the current cap we have in the atmosphere, hence a slight increase in convective coverage for late week and going into the week.
That said, we are not looking at drastic changes toward a wet pattern, just a more subtle change where isolated to widely scattered storms will be in the offering...
Overall precip amounts will remain light due to the limited storm coverage...