Hurricane Season Starts Today. Long Range Outlook....
Good Saturday Morning. This blog post will be focused on the long range (10+ day) Outlook. Hurricane season starts today. Currently there is one Invest down over the Yucatán Peninsula. This feature will be blocked from coming North though by a ridge of high pressure over the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This tropical moisture will be shoved west into Mexico.
Elsewhere the remainder of the Atlantic is quite for now. There are some indications that heights will lower over the Caribbean in 10-15 days. This could allow a low pressure to develop in that area and then move West towards the Gulf. Indications are currently that the ridge of high pressure currently over the Northern Gulf Of Mexico will continue to weaken through day 10. This allows for heights to fall in the Gulf ahead of a digging trough that arrives in the 12-16 day timeframe.
What does this mean for us? The pattern change currently taking place with the death ridge of high pressure weakening and sliding Southwest into the Gulf will likely continue. High pressure looks to develop over the Northeast in the 10-13 day timeframe. Our pattern locally will progressively become wetter again in days 8-16. Look for higher rain chances and even the chance that a couple of days may be rather cloudy and cooler not this coming week, but next. Over the next sixteen days rainfall totals should be slightly above normal. In the summertime we need approximately .14 inches of rain daily to come out with normal totals.
Hurricane season starts today.
One or two weak tropical systems in the Caribbean and Gulf are possible in the next sixteen days.
Over the long term, out 16 days, our weather pattern becomes wetter and cooler.