Long Range Forecast Is Extremely Unsettled. Thanks El Niño!

Long Term Outlook: Friday February 15th, 2019

We have been talking about the long term pattern being unsettled. Now a portion of the long term is becoming near term and that wet, unsettled trend continues. It continues into our long term forecast as well. The near term and week ahead will be handled later today by today’s forecaster on duty.

I will highlight one piece of the week ahead and that will be the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe of this coming week. A strong low pressure system will likely develop over the Southeast US. This should bring precipitation back into play Wednesday and Thursday. If trends continue we think this will fall as mainly a cold rain now. If high pressure to the North slows its progression or is stronger and this may start out as some light snow or freezing rain and quickly transition to a cold liquid rain. There are so many aspects though and we can still see only two dimensionally. There will be time to adjust this forecast over the next 3-5 days. Moving out from there the pattern remains extremely unsettled. This means there will be a parade of storm systems moving though the area. In fact, I believe that over the next 10-15 days that parts of our area will have picked up on their normal rainfall for February, March, and part of April. The good news is that no huge surge of cold air is showing up on the models right now. Looking deeper out past the next 10-14 days though the pattern turns cooler again just in time for March. Granted March 1st begins Meteorological Spring I really still believe there could be one last winter storm in our area. We have already exceeded our average winter snow with the one storm back in early December. Anything we get now is just icing on the cake but for this winter weather lover I hope the pattern doesn’t continue to let us down.

Our Spring Outlook for our forecast area out by next Friday.


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