Long Range Pattern Becoming Very Interesting.

If you have followed us for any length of time you probably know how much I absolutely love long range forecasting. Using teleconnections around the globe can give us a good idea what might happen 10+ days down the road. This time around we may not have to wait 10 days, more like 8-9 days before the pattern sets up for another winter storm in our area. My favorite teleconnection to watch is the Madden-JulIan Oscillation. This oscillation is determined by heigh falls over the Indian Ocean. When the MJO moves into phase 8 and a weak El Niño is in place that usually means a big storm on the East Coast 15 days later. You can’t predict this solely on model data though. A lot doesn’t Into forecasting it. I won’t get into all of the specifics but if you like Winter weather then the next 10-30 days is going to be right up your ally. The MJO likely will move into phase 8 in The next 5 days. As it does so, through physics, this could placed a decent trough over the Eastern United States. In El Niño Years these troughs normally pick up abundant moisture from the Gulf and transport it North, up the Eastern Seaboard. At the same time the North Atlantic Oscillation could turn negative delivering cold air into the region. Ensemble suites of the Euro and GFS are both picking up on this and to some extent the operation models are. It’s not a slam dunk but I am very excited for the next three weeks of Winter. We could end up seeing the second part of winter being the harshest. Stay tuned and sneak out there and get a snow slead while they are available. It could be fun! Stay tuned!


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