Good Tuesday morning! I hope that you are drying out from the first round of heavy rain we experienced on Monday. Most areas across the forecast area saw between 1-2" of rain with some locally higher amounts. That prompted flood advisories last evening for our folks in Rutherford, Cleveland and Lincoln Counties.
Today we should see less coverage in rain. The wedge is temporarily breaking down over the area. That will lead to a "warmer day" with highs making it into the low 50's under cloudy skies. As the next system approaches rain chances will start to increase later this evening.
Wednesday - High pressure will start to move over the Great Lakes Region, which will pump a ample supply of cold air down into our forecast area, creating Cold Air Daming or the Carolina Wedge. This is one of the more favorable positions of a wedge to set up, so it could be quiet strong, which worries me for what's to come. While that happens a coastal storm will begin in the Gulf and ride up the Southeast coastline in a Miller B type fashion.
This will lead to a complicated forecast.. Right now the dynamics look to be pointing to freezing rain.
It looks like the North Carolina mountains will see a significant ice storm. This would include the Northern parts of McDowell, Burke and Caldwell Counties. Areas in the mountains could see over 1/4" of ice accretion. Some trees still have leaves or dead leaves, so this could be more significant than normal. Winter Weather products will be issued at some point today.
The wedge looks strong, so it would not surprise me one bit to see the Interstate 40 corridor have some icing. How much, is still to be determined. This could make the Thursday morning commute slick. Also with leaves still in the trees, any ice we get to form could bring more significant issues than normal.
We are expected to warm up by Thursday afternoon. Which will turn any freezing rain to all liquid. Concern is we could also see some flash flooding with this second round of heavy rain. Many areas have already picked up 1-2" of rainfall. Cloudy skies on Tuesday and Wednesday don't allow for ample drying conditions. We've also had a wet fall, so grounds are totally saturated. I would imagine a Flash Flood Watch will be issued at some point today for Wednesday and Thursday.
Friday - Sunday: Calmer weather will prevail with Sunny skies and highs in the 50's.