Not A Lot Of Snow Tuesday But High Impacts To Afternoon Travel
Good Sunday Evening. Here is your high impact weather outlook for Tuesday January 29th, 2019. We continue to make adjustments as the forecast grows closer. Here are our graphics.
No change to our key messages today. Forecast confidence has increased though.
Our What We Know and What We Don't Graphic changed very little. We now are confident that this system will be moisture starved as it moves though our area. There just is not a solid tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture with this system. Its very progressive and there is no low pressure over the South to help it out.
Below you can see the source of this weather system. Low pressure will lift North over the Great Lakes and pull and arctic cold front south and east behind it. Ahead of it low pressure will develop Monday, move out to sea, and not have a direct impact on our storm system. Also missing is the high pressure that we need to the North that would supply cold air into the region. The cold high pressure does build south and east on Wednesday but by that time the moisture is out to sea.
Our Winter Storm Index has increased to "Prep The Roads." The main reason for this is because of the flash freeze that will occur after the precipitation moves out. For us in the foothills we may see rain mix with or briefly change to snow but we do not anticipate accumulations outside of the mountains. In our mountain areas of NW Burke, NW Caldwell, NW McDowell, and NW Rutherford Counties.
Here is a look at the temperatures as of 9pm Sunday Night as projects by the models and the red line being our official forecast. This should help you plan on when you should think about being home. We will adjust this as we provide new updates. You can see though that the models and our forecast take the temperatures below that fuchsia 32° line between 5 and 7pm Tuesday Evening. This means that leftover moisture on the roadways will freeze between those times creating hazardous driving conditions. We hope this helps you prepare.
Last but not least here is our official snowfall forecast for Tuesday. The mountains will not have a problem with precipitation types and the Winter Storm Watch looks very well placed. Below 2000'' elevation though boundary layer issues will arise. Temperatures will be well above freezing at the surface, even though aloft temperatures will be below freezing by midday. The last 1000 to 2000 ft from the atmosphere to the surface though will likely cause a lot of the snowflakes to melt. The layer will cool though as the precipitation moves through, cooling from the top down. We do think a lot of people will see snowflakes atleast mix in but at this time we do not anticipate accumulations outside of the ridgetops of the south mountains and in the normal mountain locations.