Our First Brush With Winter Weather??

Good Monday morning everyone!

I hope that you had a great Veterans Day. I want to thank those who have served, or currently serving this great country.

We had a little bit of wintry weather late Sunday night as a few scattered showers, snow flurries, and sleet pellets pushed through the area. That might not be the last brush we have this week. More on that in a few minutes.

Short Range: Monday - Tuesday

High pressure continues to build into the area as it is situated to our Northeast. This will allow the cold dense air to ooze into the area. This will set up the Carolina Wedge. A complex storm system will develop off the southeast coast and track north. This will spread rain into our area early Monday morning. It will be a rainy, and cold Monday. The rain could be heavy at times Monday afternoon and evening. Highs will generally be in the low 40's.

We will see a cutoff low develop over the mid south. This will allow for scattered showers on Tuesday. Good thing is the cold air daming situation should break down some as a warm front moves through the area. This will allow our temperatures to rise into the 50's.

2-3" of rain is possible Monday - Tuesday. There is a slight risk (Level 2 of 4) for some flash flood concerns.

Medium Range: Wednesday - Thursday

Wednesday we will see clouds on the increase once again, as a cut off low begins to strengthen over the deep south. This will allow a Southwesterly flow into the area. This will drag Gulf of Mexico moisture into the area.

High pressure will strengthen as well to our northeast. This will set up another Cold Air Daming or wedge in the area. Precipitation is expected to start late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. If the precipitation starts early, some areas in our forecast area (NW Burke, NW McDowell, NW Caldwell, Rutherford Mountains) could defiantly see some freezing rain. It is not out of the questions locations in Alexander, Greater Burke, Greater Caldwell, Greater McDowell, and Rutherford Counties could see some pockets of freezing rain early Thursday Morning. By mid morning any freezing rain would switch to liquid.

As we go into the day Thursday we will drag in warmer air aloft, that will switch any freezing rain to rain in our forecast area. Expect to see more heavy rain on Thursday as the next system moves through. Good thing is this storm system will quickly move through the area. Temperatures will stay in the low 40's on Thursday.

Rainfall through Thursday could be approaching 3-4"

Long Range: Weekend

The active weather will become much calmer with sunny skies and highs in the 50's.


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