Potential Winter Storm Next Weekend. Saturday 12/1 Update
Good Sunday Morning Subscribers. I know you have seen a lot of stuff surfacing on social media about a potential winter storm next weekend. We illuded to it in our morning weather briefing Friday. Well today we can say confidence continues to slowly increase on a potential winter storm next weekend..
This is actually what we love forecasting the most. Watching the 15 day pattern, seeing it become active, and then relaying the information to you! Thank you for subscribing. Here are our thoughts, only for subscribers.
I like this pattern we are moving into. I have been excited about it for several weeks now. I haven’t posted a lot because I don’t want to over hype things but going forward what we will do is post a 15 day general pattern overview like we used to on social. Then as we get closer and it does appear a storm will develop we can start talking about it then too.
WHERE WE STAND RIGHT NOW:
1) Pattern is now well in sight and a major storm system will affect the East Coast next weekend.
2) Southern stream energy will move a piece of energy onshore in California next Thursday and Friday. That piece of energy will eject East Into Texas Friday and begin to interact with a piece of energy from the Northern Jet. (Illustrated below)
3) High pressure to the North of the system will push cold air south as this system moves east next Saturday. The position of that high is key for cold air supply and what type of precipitation falls. Ideally, if you want Winter weather, you will want the high pressure somewhere between the Ohio Valley and the Northeast as this moisture moves in. Clockwise flow around high pressure will push cold air south out ahead of it.
4) Exact track of the low pressure plays a huge role as well. Ideally we want the low to track between the Gulf Coast and Atlanta and then that low to move off to the East Coast somewhere between Charleston and Hatteras. That also dictates how much cold air gets brought down into the area because of counterclockwise flow around low pressure.
5) Summary: All types of winter weather are on the table next weekend still. We pretty well know there will be inclement weather in our area for atleast part of next weekend, if not all of it. The chances of the precipitation being of the frozen variety are increasing across the foothills. The chance of liquid rain remains on the table too. This will likely be anther high end precipitation event no matter what type of precipitation falls. I feel you really held my feet to the ice right now I would lean toward a winter mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain with a period of liquid rain possible too. Everything is on the table and the forecast should be monitored for updates. It is too soon to predict any type of accumulations. If the forecast continues to trend colder then high impact weather briefings will be initiated here on our site Sunday Night or Monday.