Rain And Isolated Thunder Tonight But Risk For Severe Weather Is Increasing Tuesday
Good Sunday Morning. Skies are clear out there this morning but that will change this afternoon as surface low pressure out over the Mid-South lifts North. Ahead of this low pressure flow will veer from Southwest to Southeast this afternoon. As often is the case with southeast flow across our area, cloud cover will increase this afternoon. Then after sunset rain will likely begin as a band of showers and thunderstorms move across the area through predawn. Rainfall totals tonight will range from .25 to .50 an inch with pockets of .75 inches along the Eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge.
That widespread rainfall will move East of the area Monday Morning but low level mist and drizzle will hang tough. Monday Afternoon a deepening low pressure system across the midwest will once again veer winds to the Southeast. So don't expect much, if any, sunshine on Monday. High temperatures Monday will likely be stuck in the low 60's.
Monday Night moisture will lift North out of the Gulf of Mexico and that moisture coupled with southeast flow off the Atlantic will produce widespread light rain across NW Burke, NW Caldwell, NW McDowell by daybreak Tuesday. That precipitation will expand in coverage through the morning. A cold front will move East across the area around mid day to mid afternoon Tuesday. The best dynamics though will remain to the West as that surface low lifts to the North toward the Ohio Valley. That is good news because the highest severe chances will track North along with the low pressure. Models still produce a healthy amount of instability across the area as a jet streak lifts north with the front. There will be enough sheer present Tuesday Afternoon that a couple of storms could become severe producing damaging downburst winds. There is the isolated chance of tornadoes as well. The higher tornadic threat would be to our West across Tennessee and into the Ohio Valley with that low pressure. The chance for isolated tornadoes does remail along that cold front as a line of storms (QLCS) rushes East. This is something we will continue to keep an eye on as the day progresses. Just be weather ready on Tuesday.