Return of the heat and humidity + new 3 month outlook

Updated: Jun 16, 2019

Good afternoon, Foothills Weather Nation! We hope everyone is enjoying their sunny Saturday. The cooler temperatures will only be here for today as we will be back to normal temps starting tomorrow on through the rest of the week. Along with the heat the humidity will be back on the rise. This special summery cocktail is the perfect recipe for thunderstorms and showers to enter into the region for the bulk of the work week. Much as this weekend has been drier we do expect for next weekend to be on the drier side as well.


We will get into the full week ahead forecast tomorrow, but we can take a new look at the 3 month outlook as we are nearing the end of our old forecasting time period. For the outlook from April, May, June we noted that it was going to be a bit warmer than usual as well as wetter than usual. So far this has hit the nail on the head as the average of daily highs have been notably higher and monthly rainfall totals have been significant as well.


Let's look at what we can expect for July, August, and September. First let's look at the precipitation:




As noted in the map above, this was generated a day shy of a month ago, so likely soon NOAA will be producing a new map. We are using these as reference as they do match fairly similar to our own predictions. To understand this map you need to know that anything brown means that it is probable to be less than average rainfall, white means equal chances of above or below average, and the green means that is more probable for above average rainfall. The map above is referencing the July, August, and September time frame and has us at equal chances of higher or lower than average rainfall. Seeing that we have been in quite the wet period, this might possibly be a sigh of relief for the area. Alternatively, as this is the summer we will need our usual amount of rain to ensure we don't enter into drought conditions which can be very hard for our region to get out of once we are in it. As you can imagine, we are currently not in drought.


Next is the temperature outlook:




Also produced nearly a month ago, here is the temperature outlook for July, August, and September. To understand this map you need to know that anything blue means that it is probable to be less than average temperatures, white means equal chances of above or below average, and the red means that is more probable for above average temperatures. This map has all of the East (and West) Coast with above average temperatures with our region mostly in the 40-50% chance but the high country showing to be in the 30-40% chance of higher than average temperatures.


This combination does bring concern in that if the temperatures are higher, but we aren't getting any more rain, it would be easier for us to enter into drought conditions which puts us at risk for general hardship as NC summertime heat can be intolerable at times, it could be a hardship on our farmers, and stresses our beautiful landscape, bringing a real threat of fires into the region.


At this time there isn't a threat for fires, but we need to consider the possibility as it is right now.


For a more immediate discussion, we will be writing the Week Ahead discussion tomorrow for those who want to know hwo to

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