Good Sunday afternoon to everyone across the Carolinas, there never seems to be a break in the weather pattern around these parts and from what we are looking at today another forecast challenge is on the way for a large part of the Southeast this week
The challenge lies with the ultimate path of current Tropical Storm Sally in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite images show Sally in a sheared environment with the heaviest precipitation east of the center of circulation. Sally is moving WNW toward the Northern Gulf Coast. The wind shear is expected to lessen as we get into Monday and could allow Sally to become our next hurricane. As you can see on the official storm track from the National Hurricane Center, Sally will move into Southeast Louisiana on Tuesday and then slowly inland through the middle and latter part of the workweek.
It’s the Day 4 and 5 positions on the NHC forecast that has our interest as Sally could provide weather impacts to the Western Carolinas should this forecast be accurate.
Computer model data is supporting the forecast well as the main global models have Sally moving to the northeast after landfall but at differing speeds. For the sake of this discussion I am relying on a blend of the NAM and European models.
Fast forward to Tuesday morning, Sally is making a slow approach to the Gulf Coast, meanwhile an area of high pressure to our north will push some cooler and drier air into the Western Carolinas in a wedge fashion. Tuesday could really turn out to be a nice day, unfortunately the high pressure is transient in nature and will not be able to lock in the nice weather for very long.
By Wednesday, high pressure will be sliding to our east, return flow from the east and southeast will push into the Western Carolinas and the backdoor front to our south will also be in retreat. The airmass will modify quickly on Wednesday with upslope rain showers possible by Wednesday night.
At the same time Sally will be pulling up into the Deep South moving slowly to the northeast on the Euro. This will advect deep tropical moisture from the storm and that will begin to push into the Western Carolinas by Thursday.
Then as we get to Friday morning, the remnant low of Sally will be located across North Georgia, this is strong heavy rain signal for the Carolinas as 40-50 knots of southeast upslope flow will force that deep tropical moisture in.
Anytime you deal with a remnant tropical low passing near or overhead the region, the chance of flash flooding exists. And given recent saturation of the ground, the threat could be enhanced especially for our followers across the Foothills and the Blue Ridge Escarpment. That region has seen abundant rainfall during the past week to month.
Weather Prediction Center is currently indicating that the Southern Appalachian Region could see several inches of rain over the next 5-7 days…
This forecast is one that we will definitely fine tune as we get through the next couple days. For those who live in flood prone areas stay in tune with our forecast for the latest information. If you have not already, right now would be a great time to Download our Foothills Weather App in your local App Store that way you can keep track of the latest in the tropics and here at home!