Severe Weather Likely Sunday Across the Western Carolinas...

Good Saturday afternoon to everyone across the region, an unsettled weekend continues thanks to a lingering frontal boundary and early summer-like moisture content in the atmosphere.


Unfortunately the worst may be yet to come for the Western Carolinas as a very strong storm system has organized across the Arklatex Region and will move north and east toward the Carolinas.


Water vapor imagery this afternoon is showing a strong upper low pressure area centered over The Lone Star State. A surface low has also developed and with abundant moisture in place and jet dynamics the stage is set for a major severe weather event...strong damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are impact that part of the country...






This feature will quickly move east overnight bringing additional severe weather to Mississippi, Western Tennessee and eventually into Alabama.


For tomorrow the threat of severe weather continues...the Storm Prediction Center has adjusted their Enhanced Risk area from yesterday's Day 3 Outlook, the Western Carolinas remain in the heart of the Enhanced Risk area. All modes of severe weather is possible on Sunday. Damaging straight line winds is the biggest threat tomorrow. That said large hail is also a threat along with some tornadoes.




We are in particular looking at the short range guidance as there are indications that rotating storm activity could be higher than anything we have seen so far this spring. Model parameters are showing the ability for storms tomorrow afternoon to enter an environment capable of producing supercells, some of them that could spawn a tornado.




The general timeframe in which the weather could become severe would be from early afternoon through sunset on Sunday...






Looking specifically at the impacts...damaging winds we feel is a high threat at this time and with the wind shear that looks to be in place we want to give some extra awareness to the tornado threat. But as you can see on the timeline, all threats are centered around the same time...







Model Future Radar: Sunday 9 am

Models have been consistent the past few runs. A few upslope showers will be possible first thing tomorrow morning and you can see the main line from overnight moving through the Tennessee Valley and into Alabama/Georgia by mid-morning...











Model Future Radar: Sunday 2 pm

By early afternoon the leftover thunderstorms will be moving into the Western Carolinas, meanwhile we expected a good amount of instability to be in place, so chances are this line will begin to intensity again. This is when the damaging wind and/or threat of a spin-up may start for our region. Also locally heavy rain will fall with the storms...









Model Future Radar: Sunday 5 pm

By late afternoon you can see the initial line of storms now into the heart of the coverage area. Any tornado threat would be at its highest by this point. Behind that is a secondary line of storms across the Tennessee Valley, that is associated with the actual cold front. That line will be capable of damaging winds as well...









Model Future Radar: Sunday 10 pm

Then after sunset, the cold front itself will be moving through the Western Carolinas...strong damaging winds are possible along the edge of this line but once it moves overhead, the severe weather threat will begin to taper off...










This storm system has the potential of laying down a good bit of rainfall through Sunday night and with the possibility of training cells, the flash flood threat we have placed inside the medium category on our scale...






Remain Weather Aware during the next 24+ hours as the timing and impacts could change somewhat depending on various factors...here are a few more severe weather safety tips for tomorrow and future severe weather events...





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