Short Range Forecast Challenges Ahead, Cold Air Damming Possible Wednesday...

Good Tuesday afternoon to everyone, hope you are enjoying the day...

We have been talking in recent days about hot weather and the first true heat wave of the season for the Carolinas. A lot of the big heat waves are a product of ridging aloft and light winds, from a southerly or westerly direction.

However the atmosphere is a lot like a making a has different layers to it. And for us here on planet earth the surface layer can override what aloft could be a very hot regime. And that leads to the Wednesday forecast as signs have appeared of a brief change in the weather pattern.

For the rest of today expect really nice weather overall. It will still be hot, however with lower humidity the heat should be a bit more tolerable. As you can see here on visible satellite, plenty of sunshine dominates the Southeast.

That less humid air is the first part of the changes in the forecast...even through ridging continues to dominate the Southeast, aloft... its the subtle differences at the surface that throws the forecast into flux.

500 mb Pressure Heights (Wednesday morning)

Wednesday morning surface map

A warm season cold-air damming event has appeared in the models for Wednesday. A surface high of about 1028 mb will be located across Ontario and will surge northeast surface winds down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. That is on most occasions a good signal for cooler weather, at least on a temporary basis.

This a more localized look the surface winds for tomorrow afternoon...northeast winds will turn more easterly and then curl up along the Blue Ridge in Western North Carolina. That is usually a good sign of increased clouds and therefor we are leaning toward a colder Wednesday and possibly Thursday depending on how quick winds veer back to a southerly direction.

Computer model guidance is very aggressive on the colder temps for tomorrow, keeping all locations in the 70's all day long. This is where the forecast uncertainty lies...just how much cooler and how much in the way of clouds do we see tomorrow?

Our forecast will be out later this afternoon...we are leaning toward a cooler day but not as aggressive as the guidance. Stay tuned!


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