Some Accumulating Snow Across The Foothills??
Good Tuesday Morning. A lot of rain moving toward the area in the near term over the next 24-36 hours. Our focus for this blog though is on the potential for snow on Thursday into very early Friday of this week.
A weather system will move from the Rockies to the Southeast Wednesday Night into Thursday while weakening. A new low pressure system will develop off of the Southeast Coastline and then move Northeast Thursday Night.
Synoptic Setup (Here is the Weather Geek Talk. Skip this for Layman's Talk Below)
Low pressure moves out of the Rockies today and into the Midwest tomorrow. By Thursday this system will be weakening off to our south while a new area of low pressure develops off of the Southeast Coast (cyclogenisis). High pressure will move into the Northeast and will funnel cold air south Thursday. There remains great disagreement in the operational models as to how strong this high pressure is and how much/far that dry air is pushed. Trends in models have been weaker with the high allowing for enough atmospheric forcing in our area to produce some accumulating snow. Whereas two days ago the consensus was that this high might be a little too strong and have a little too much dry air in place in our area. The low should move to Atlanta as said before washing out and the new cyclogenisis developing off the SE Coast. As that initial low moves to its closest position to the region Thursday Morning it may create just enough of a warm nose aloft that a mix of rain, sleet, and snow occurs. It would probably mix back in forth several times along and South of the Hwy 74 corridor. Much of the other areas look to be either rain or snow for the duration of the event. As low pressure develops and strengthens off the coastline Thursday Afternoon, frontogenisis (frontal development) should occur over Eastern NC. Baroclonic forcing really looks the most amped south and east of Raleigh. This could allow for a burst of very heavy snowfall in the sandhills of North Carolina Thursday Night into Friday. Any model correction with the cyclogenisis to the North and West could mean that that baroclonic zone sets up further North and West too, however I doubt seriously it will be enough to implicate the forecast across the foothills but we will keep our eye on it. Meanwhile across the Western Carolinas, including the foothills, drier air moves in and shuts down the precipitation from West to East quickly Thursday Night.
Layman's Terms Please!!!!
Okay, you've got it. A weather system will move out of the Rockies today and into the midwest by tomorrow (Wednesday). Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning the system will trek East just North of the Gulf of Mexico Shore and up to Atlanta before weakening Thursday Morning. A new area of low pressure will develop somewhere off of the Southeast Coast. The exact location of that lows development and its eventual track are key. As the low pressure system moves to near Atlanta Thursday Morning models are now indicating that the low and mid levels might not be as dry as once thought, creating the chance for precipitation to blossom. Temperatures do look to be sufficently cold for atleast a mix of rain and snow on Thursday. Some sleet may mix in along and South of Hwy 74 though as slightly warmer (34- 37°) air tries to move in just off the surface Thursday Morning. Models indicate that the cold air may be sufficient enough to overcome the sleet/rain/snow mix on Thursday Afternoon and become just all snow. Thursday Afternoon and early Thursday Night look to be the prime time for any moderate or heavy burst of snow if it is going to occur across the foothills. Its something we will keep our eye on. Its too soon for accumulation maps even though we are two days out but we will create those with our update tonight. Surface temps Thursday though Thursday Night along and North of I-40 look to hover around 31 to 33 ° wile along and north of Hwy 74 they hover between 32 and 34 °. Any change at all in model data could change this forecast either way. Stay tuned.
End morning update. Questions please ask. We will answer them as we can through the day!