Some Accumulating Snow Likely Thursday But Just How Much?
Morning Update sponsored by Chick Fil A of Morganton!
Good morning and welcome to your Wednesday. All eyes take focus on the timeframe 24 hours out from now. A very dynamic weather system will move through the region starting Thursday Morning. Now, I will start out telling you that we need to work on this timing throughout the day. You will see a lot of red in the travel timelines below. That red is for shaded backroads and roads less traveled. Most of the main roads should stay just wet through the day on Thursday. If any precipitation is left over to fall after sunset then roads will likely quickly become a mess. Even if precipitation shuts off earlier than currently forecast then black ice will be widespread Thursday Night and Friday Morning.
The cold front crossing our area now will stall out to our south this afternoon. A weather system will develop along this front over Dallas Texas and move East tonight. This system reaches the Atlanta area Thursday Morning while spreading precipitation into our area. Tonight cold high pressure will build in and funnel cold air into the region. Enough of a shallow warm nose is likely on Thursday Morning that the initial precipitation could start off as a rain/sleet/snow mix. Temperatures aloft though will be sufficiently cold enough to produce snow, some 3 - 4 degrees below freezing. At the surface as precipitation picks up through the morning hours it will pull some of that cold air down with it and will kind of create its own cold pool of air. I think most places will be down to around 32-34° by Noon Thursday with precipitation falling moderately.
The system over Atlanta weakens and transitions its energy to a coastal low (Miller-B setup) and this will pull a lot of the precipitation off to the east quickly Thursday Night. Again, the biggest issue with our timeline right now is narrowing down when precipitation ends Thursday Night. Its something we will do through the day today as the forecast evolves. I do think that everyone is void of precipitation by midnight though but some light freezing mist or freezing fog will likely linger. Temperatures Thursday Night crash into the mid and upper 20's so we are expecting widespread travel issues Thursday Night. I would plan to be home by sunset Thursday Night if at all possible. Our accumulation forecast looks spot on this morning and I see no need for adjustments to it at this time. We will take one final look at that this evening. I feel confident everyone will make to 1 inch but a few scattered areas could make it to three inches, especially across Cleveland, Lincoln, and Catawba Counties where precipitation will hold on a bit longer. Again, its an evolving forecast and will need some adjustment this afternoon I feel sure so stay tuned.
Monitor the evolution of the forecast through the day today. Have a great Wednesday!