SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE: Monday's Severe Weather Planner
Strong to severe storms will develop Monday Afternoon and Evening. A strong area of upper level low pressure will move East out of Texas and into Louisiana by Monday Night. Ahead of this area of low pressure the atmosphere will destabilize as SW flow pushes warm unstable air into the region. A piece of energy will move through during the late morning hours into the early afternoon hours of Monday and we look for that to kickstart convection early.
That being said here are the highlights....
Models indicate some sun Monday Morning prior to upper level energy moving through the area from Southwest to Northeast. Sunshine on Monday Morning will allow CAPE (Convective Atmospheric Potential Energy) to become more robust across the area. I think our counties along the Hwy 16 Corridor stand the best chance of seeing severe weather and I would include Cleveland County in that. Alexander, Catawba, Cleveland, and Lincoln to be specific. I think these areas will see the best chance of seeing the severe weather. Though, further West, we cannot rule out a storm becoming strong or severe either. Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, and Rutherford likely will largely stay in the marginal risk for now. More sunshine tomorrow could lead to a change in that so stay tuned.
Thunderstorms during the afternoon hours will likely remain scattered. One or two could be severe. So hit or miss between Noon and 6pm. From 6pm to midnight the rain and storms will become more congealed and this will also be the best chance of seeing severe storms. A line of thunderstorms should approach the mountains, weaken, then redevelop on the eastern slope of the Blue Ridge, gaining strength as they move east.
Torrential rainfall will also be an issue to watch. As precipitation rates surge to 1.5 inches per hour with stiff southerly flow on Monday Afternoon the coverage of thunderstorms will be on the climb. With unidirectional winds this means that thunderstorms could train over the same areas again and again. We have had a decent dry period but we could still see some localized flash flooding where these storms train. Generally speaking a good 1-2 inches of rainfall will be likely with a few areas where those thunderstorms train getting up to or exceeding 3 inches.
Scattered to numerous showers and a few storms could continue overnight. These storms may redevelop as well on Tuesday Afternoon although they would be more scattered and not as organized. A couple of severe storms will be possible on Tuesday Afternoon as well.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the main severe weather threats with this storm system. The tornado threat is very low but remember wind is wind whether it is moving in a straight line or spinning.
Lightning will be prolific with these storms as they will have cold icy cores. Expect lots of cloud to ground lightning. It may be a wise idea to unplug valuable electronics before you leave home Monday Morning. PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Lightning Alerts may be needed Monday Afternoon and Monday Night. PDS Lightning Alerts are reserved for the most dangerous lightning storms that affect our area every year.