Good Sunday evening, hope everyone is doing well. This blog entry is to go into detail about the weather pattern expected going into the first week of June.
After a cold front passes tonight the Western Carolinas will have one more bout of pleasant weather for late spring standards.
Northwest flow at the upper levels of the atmosphere is driving an airmass of Canadian origins into the eastern US, this will control everything through the first half of the work week.
At the surface, a broad high pressure over the Ohio Valley Region will result in a nice Monday with mostly sunny conditions and low humidity, temps in the low 80’s.
That surface high will drift southeast and settle into the Carolinas by Tuesday. Temps will drop quickly Monday night with the light winds and low humidity. By the time you wake up Tuesday, temps will be in the low 50’s, with almost chilly 40’s in the mountains...a true refreshing and crisp feel for early June.
Tuesday and Wednesday will also be nice days with plenty of sunny weather but changes will be on the way for the second half of the work week.
By late Wednesday a trough buried back over the four corners region will move into the Plains.
There will be some rich tropical moisture for this trough to work with as a disturbed area of weather will get pulled north from either Mexico or the Western Gulf of Mexico.
Then by Friday our Plains trough will take a slight negative tilt and move to the north and east. It’s this feature that could very well change our pattern to a more active one. The dreaded southeast heat ridge is no longer there to deter storm activity.
This should get us back to a pattern with little capping aloft and some upper dynamics to help encourage convective development.
The models are already responding in its QPF output to this change in the pattern as it is ramping up precip amounts in the Day 5-8 range.
We’ll keep an eye on it going into the late week timeframe.