The Week Ahead: A visit by Old Man Winter?

Good afternoon, Foothills Weather nation! As we are coming to a close on our day, we hope you have had a great weekend. The upcoming weekend has already proven to produce quite a bit of chatter for the Carolinas. To get the nitty gritty, read our official statement from Chief Meteorologist Christopher White as written in the post below. This blog will focus on the week in it's entirety.

Let's get to it!

Near term forecast (Today-Monday)

As of right now we are having CAD (Cold Air Damming) conditions melt away above us, allowing for the disintegration of cloud coverage and increase of drier conditions. Overnight tonight we will have partly cloudy conditions on through Monday where Monday will be slightly more moist than what was previously forecasted due to the amount of residual soil moisture. Overall we are in a stage of above average temperatures with tonight and tomorrow being 7-10 degrees above climo. Winds will make a rotation from southerly, southwesterly, to northwesterly by early Tuesday morning where we will see surface conditions that are much closer to seasonal.

Short term forecast (Tuesday-Thursday)

A broad, lifting, upper atmospheric trough that nearly nests the entire country from coast to coast rests it's axis just south of the tip of Illinois on Tuesday. As this wave slowly propagates to the east has a shortwave develop within it. Tuesday and Wednesday will mirror each other with highs in the low to mid 40's, mild winds of 5-10 mph from the northwest and partly sunny conditions. Wednesday night into Thursday is when this shortwave peaks in maturity and snaps clear over the Appalachians, dragging along with it a strong cold front associated with a high pressure and, therefore, a blast of winter air. Overnight low will be in the low 20's from Wednesday night into Thursday. With this shock of colder, drier air we will have sunny skies allowing the Thursday high to climb graciously into the low 40's.

Long term forecast (Friday-Sunday)

This would be a lengthy part of the discussion, but as Christopher White has covered this well in his post below, we will keep this short to minimize duplicate efforts. As a synopsis, there is an agreeance between the major global models of wintery mix and potentially snow Friday through Sunday. The high pressure from Thursday will be east of the forecasting area by Friday, setting us up for a classic Cold Air Damming situation right before a Miller-A type setup where a low pressure that originates from the Gulf will zipper more or less up the coastline. All of this means that we will get quite a bit of cold air and then bring in sufficient moisture to follow up. Of course, this is North Carolina where we love to have these near textbook setups generate on the models, but as we- meaning the Foothills, are sitting on that line of freezing temperatures we have the chance of only getting a wintry mix. High country on the other hand is more likely to see straight snow for this particular event. Ultimately, it's not safe to say anything definite as things are likely to change over time, but this is certainly on our radar. Look out for further updates from us on this matter.

Thanks for reading! I hope you have a great week!


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