Good evening, Foothills Weather Nation! We hope everyone has had a wonderful Fourth of July and Weekend of the 4th whether you decided to head out to the beach, stayed at home, or visited somewhere else! It's been fairly rainy the past week with the next week looking much of the same and the week after looking to be the same as well as a weather pattern just on the other side of the Apps looks to descend into the Gulf and advect more rain and energy into the Southeastern US.
The National Hurricane Center has this as their 8 pm update:
"For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States
is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a few
days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders
near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system
has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction
Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Regardless of what this ultimately becomes, we won't see any solid impacts from this thing until the end of this week into the middle of next week. Should it stay on track with what's expected by the GFS and Euro models, we will see quite a bit of rain from the low pressure system as it moves along.
As what we have discussed so far really only pertains to the 14th-20th, let's get on with talking in better detail for what we can expect for this week.
Near Term Forecast (Tonight - Monday night)
Even though the sun has set, we do expect to see some lingering showers and thunderstorms in the area until our precipitation chances drop off at around 2 am tonight. On Monday a weak frontal passage will move into the area bringing with it some energy and additional moisture which will be sufficient for some showers around lunch time and thunderstorms likely for the commuter hours into the late evening. With this frontal passage we can expect the temperatures to drop a couple of degrees which, of course, is greatly welcomed. For tomorrow expect the daily highs in the upper 80's and the daily low hovering just around 70 degrees.
Short Term Forecast (Tuesday - Friday)
For the first half of this forecasting block a broad upper level ridge will be building over the region and moving just offshore. What this ends up meaning for us for Tuesday night and Wednesday is that the general flow from the surface to the upper atmosphere will be coming from the northeast for our region. This will be setting us up for a summertime wedge which for us will mean another slight dip in temperature by a couple of degrees as well as less scattered and more blanket type rain coverage for at least the later part of Tuesday and the first half of Wednesday. Come Wednesday afternoon we can see some more thunderstorms come into the area possibly. Thanks to a second weak frontal passage, Thursday and Friday we have our temperatures back into the upper 80's again as well as the full reprise of afternoon convective scattered thunderstorms with Friday having a higher chance than Thursday. For all of the work week expect nightly lows in the upper 60's and just at 70 degree mark.
Long Term Forecast (Saturday and Sunday)
Next weekend will be light until we can siphon energy and precipitable water from the low pressure we expect to skirt along the edge of the Gulf coast. Current predictions have a 30 and 40 percent chance of precipitation for both Saturday and Sunday with daily highs still sitting in the upper 80's.
While it's been mentioned a few times in this post that we will see our temperatures drop by a couple of degrees, it's important to note that the temperatures are still well within the range of being dangerous for those who work outdoors, pets who spend any length of time outdoors, and anyone or thing that might be left in a car that does not have well functioning AC. Make sure everyone drinks plenty of fluids, stay in the shade while you can, and keep cool as often as you can.
Thank you very much for reading! We hope everyone has a wonderful week!