The Week Ahead: Rainy in May

Good afternoon, Foothills Weather Nation! I hope everyone is staying generally dry during this wet weekend. Wet weekends have been a bit of a trend for us lately, and this weekend and next weekend won't be an exception. Let's take a look into what else to expect for our Week Ahead.

Short Term Forecast (tonight-Tuesday)

For the remaining of our afternoon through evening forecast tonight we can expect some showers with the potential of cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds as our cold frontal passage finishes coming through, but overall this wouldn't be enough to be deemed severe. As we go into Monday a weak surface high pressure will build over the region which will bring drier conditions. Clouds will decrease into mostly sunny skies and will therefore allow us to feel minimal impacts from the cold front of today. Tuesday's weather will feature much of the same conditions as Monday as our high pressure remains to be the dominant event. Daily temperatures will have highs in the upper 70's/lower 80's with overnight lows in the upper 50's/low 60's. You can expect mild winds during this time initially coming from the north, but will pivot to the southwest.

Long Term Forecast (Wednesday-Saturday)

As indicated by the northerly to southerly shift in wind directions, our aforementioned weak surface high pressure will move off the coast of North Carolina as of Wednesday morning which will be replaced by a general pattern indicating the approach of a trough. Bringing mild energy from the upper atmosphere, but the moisture and warmth from the southerly surface winds allow for further instability on Wednesday meaning the probability of seasonal afternoon thunderstorms across the Southeast. Wednesday will start off partly cloudy, but will fill in a bit when those thunderstorms roll through. As of right now there isn't any specific concerns of Wednesday weather being severe. For Wednesday through Friday our temperatures will be about 4-6 degrees above the average which is about 78 degrees for the month of May. Starting on Thursday we will see the actual entrance of our strengthening trough as the warm sector fully begins to nestle into the region. For Thursday and Friday it is possible to see some severe weather as there is quite a bit of available energy in association with this trough and the precipitable water values for both days are rather consistent with around 1.4-1.6 inches of water. To clarify, the term precipitable water means if all of the water in the atmosphere at the time was to rain out entirely, that is how much rain that would fall. We might actually get a solid inch or so collectively from Wednesday through Friday, but it's not a guarantee. By early Friday evening our cold front will have passed though completely, but the exit of this upper latitude trough will not be similar to the exits we have come accustomed to the last few months. Saturday also brings with it the probability of it's own source of instability, energy, and moisture as a southerly flow fills in behind the exiting cold front. Temperatures will be closer to average following the frontal passage for both Saturday and Sunday.

Thank you all for reading! I hope you have a great week.


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