To Snow or Not To Snow: That is the Question?

Good Wednesday afternoon to everyone, as we have been talking about the past couple days computer model guidance has been giving mixed signals for an early March winter weather event across the Carolinas. A lot of uncertainty remains at this point but here in the midweek timeframe, our confidence for snow next week is going down at this time...and here is a pretty sound meteorological reasoning behind it...

Back on Sunday we were examining the 500mb weather charts and it showed a near class setup for a southern snow event.

First your had Pacific-North American ridging that would dislodge cold air from the northern latitudes and send it into North America. Then across Southeast Canada, strong confluent flow was in place to help establish and maintain any surface high pressure system that would feed cold air into the Eastern US. And third, the confluence would help keep a surpressed (or more southern storm track)...this was all the pieces needed for a possible winter storm.

Three days later some subtle but very significant changes at 500 mb has changed the players on the field, so to speak...

PNA ridging remains firmly in place for late this weekend but the confluence across Southeast Canada has been broken down significantly compared to our thoughts a couple days ago. The lack of confluence has also resulted in a lack of suppression in the southern storm track. What looked like a classic Gulf of Mexico storm riding up and off the East Coast has now become more of an interior Southeast storm track.

All the technical jargon aside, we are currently looking at a warmer and potentially more liquid weather event on Sunday and Monday followed by cold air on howling northwest winds. The cold air won't be denied...but the chances of it linking with moisture looks to be lessening early next week.

We will continue to look at model ensemble guidance the next few days to see if the trend continues. The fact that one family of ensemble members still have measurable snow in its run is reason to not totally shut the door on this event...but it will take a reverse back to the look of earlier this week for our confidence to increase.

As of this time, we are not going to initiate a High Impact Weather Outlook but that could change as we go through time. As always, check out the 7-Day forecast on the website for the latest...


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