Tropics Coming to Life?: Signs of Increased Activity as we end August

Good Friday afternoon to everyone...

As you have probably noticed to this point the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been relatively void of action. Two tropical storms, one minimal hurricane and a fourth system that reached Tropical Depression status has formed so far in the Atlantic basin. Three of those features (Andrea, TD 3, Chantal) posed no threat to the United States the fourth (Barry) did bring some winds and rain to the Gulf Coast Region.

As we look at the current satellite of the Atlantic Basin we have Chantal and two other areas of investigation in the basin. Given the rampant dry air and Saharan Dust that has spread across the Atlantic over the past couple months, we are now seeing some of the busiest activity of the hurricane season to this point...


An area of disturbed weather off the Carolina Coastline earlier this week moved out into the Western Atlantic and organized enough to form into the third tropical storm of the season on Tuesday.

As of this afternoon Chantal has weakened into a tropical depression and is meandering around the open Atlantic hundreds of miles away from any landmass. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast has Chantal losing its tropical characteristics later this weekend effectively ending its life cycle...


Another area of interest is a tropical wave that is located across the NW Bahamas, this wave is currently bringing enhanced tropical showers and thunderstorms to the Bahamas and into the state of Florida...

This area of disturbed weather will slowly move north this weekend bringing enhanced rainfall chances to the state of Florida. Model guidance shows 98L moving westward into the Florida Peninsula tomorrow, however by Sunday the feature will begin to curve more off to the northeast as a cold front and trough will drive deep into the south. This is the same front currently impacting our weather here in Western Carolinas.

This trough will do its job in protecting the Southeast coastline and guiding 98L up the coastline. However as the system gets further out near the Gulf Stream it could organize into a named storm eventually, which the "D" name would be Dorian.


The third feature of interest is a tropical wave that has organized several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles...this system has really got its act together over the past day or so and satellite indicates a nice spin out in the middle of the Atlantic. Given the trends of today we may have a depression forming in short manner...

Model initialization began today at 12z model suite and the first indications are that this feature may develop over the course of the forecast period into a more significant tropical system.

If the development occurs fast enough, this may beat 98 L to acquiring the name Dorian, we shall see on it. FYI, the "E" storm would be named Erin.

This feature will be one to monitor in the long term, if development occurs the islands of the Eastern Caribbean would be first at risk next week.

Looking at the overall precip pattern in the long range you can see our two newest features and a possible general track during its lifespan. We will definitely keep an eye on it...


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