T'was the day before Christmas, when all through Western North Carolina, the weather wasn't stirring not even the mountain snow flurries. The forecast was fairly easy to prepare. In the hopes the forecaster wouldn't be hurt since no white Christmas would be hear. The forecasters were nestled by the fireplace, while visions of winter storms danced in there heads. When out in the long range those arose a clatter, We sprang to our computers to see what was happening. Away to the GFS and European model what did our wondering eye see, that's right another huge rain maker to close out the year!
I hope you liked my little rendition of T'was the Night before Christmas!
Christmas eve through the day after Christmas look to be fairly calm across the Foothills and Western Piedmont of North Carolina. That is good as it should allow us to dry up some before another huge rain maker.
High temperatures over the next three days will top out in the mid to upper 40's. A few locations could squeak into the low 50's.
Wednesday night clouds will increase, ahead of what looks to be a pretty significant rain maker. High pressure will be situated to our Northeast. Unfortunately it is a transit low, which will not supply a bunch of cold air into the area. So expect to see a fairly chilly day with a wedge setting up over the area.
Friday the wedge starts to break down, so we could see the temperatures rise and could also kick off some instability across the area. So a very isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out. Some models are wanting to stall the front near the area, so we could hang on to the shower threat through weekend. Highs Friday - Sunday will be in the mid to upper 50's.
The flood threat is slightly more elevated for this event. We tap into rich flow of Gulf moisture which could give us copious amounts of heavy rain. I'm afraid this event, might trigger the disruptive flooding that we've feared over the last few events.
As of right now a solid 2-4" of rain is expected across the area. A few locations in McDowell, Burke, and Caldwell Counties could approach 5".
Looking in the long range, right after New Years the pattern may start to transition to a colder pattern. The storm track looks to remain active. We will have to see how that pans out.
Merry Christmas everyone! I hope you have a happy and safe Christmas eve!