Good Thursday evening to everyone…a lot going on here in the weather world and our team is here to give you a head's up as to what may be coming.
The region is starting to enter into an active weather pattern for the first week of November. Honestly, it’s a classic pattern and clash of the air masses as cold arctic air will begin to build up and make multiple runs into the United States while ridging along the off the East Coast tries to keep a resemblance of warmer and more unstable air across the Eastern US. That combined with an evident Pacific connection to moisture is going to lead to periods of unsettled weather, actually beginning now and lasting periodically through the first half of next week.
The current trough axis is located roughly along the Mississippi River and has a slight negative tilt (NW to SE) to it. This trough is helping to bring the wet weather to the Carolinas tonight, a frontal boundary with a couple pieces of energy will travel east of the trough axis bringing unsettled weather to the Carolinas through all of Friday. Tomorrow will be a showery day, especially the further east you are.
Latest GOES-16 Water Vapor image shows a lot of the same...you can definitely see the established moisture pipeline now pushing along and east of the Appalachians. This moisture will be very slow to push out tomorrow...
We will see a bit of improvement on Saturday and Sunday as the moisture will pull east of the region, some cooler and drier air will filter into the Carolinas making for nice, early November-like conditions.
In terms of synoptics, the trough axis will begin to shift west (retrograde) as we go into next week and that will help spawn off some new storm systems that will take a somewhat different path up through the Midwest and Ohio Valley from the Southern Plains. The upper level energy will provide for a powerful jet stream while the Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific origin of moisture will hold in tact following the storm track...
The first storm system to run well to our west will occur on Monday as low pressure will move up through the Great Lakes and into Canada. It will push another surface boundary into the Southeast and moisture will again likely pool up ahead of the front. Look for rain chances to increase again locally to begin the new work-week.
Once the Monday system drags it feet through the region and second and more powerful storm system will round the trough axis and begin to push into the Mississippi River Valley Region. This storm could lower in pressure significantly compared to the storm that was in front of it. This has the earmark at the surface and upper levels of a Severe Weather event for the Mid-South and up into the Midwest on Tuesday. There will be plenty of low level moisture from the Atlantic and Gulf and warm air thanks to the southerly winds out ahead of the dynamic storm system.
Already at this stage in the game the models are printing out some modest amounts of surface CAPE (or instability
) along the frontal boundary on Tuesday. It will be interesting to see if the Severe Weather potential tries to translate eastward going into Tuesday Night across the Southeast US...
Regardless of the severity of the weather during the next 5-7 Days...rainfall will be quite abundant. Even though we are no longer in the warm weather season where tropical moisture content is usually abundant, we continue to get healthy rainfall events with nearly every storm system that crosses the Southern tier of the country...this may very well be a harbinger of things to come once Meteorological Winter begins next month.