Good Wednesday evening to everyone. Cold and dry weather has settled back in to the Western Carolinas for the mid week period but it will be relatively short lived as our next storm system will impact the region for the weekend.
a trough of low pressure seen on the water vapor image is getting ready to move into Southern California. That trough will continue to move east.
As we get to Friday morning the European Model shows the upper low moving through the Four Corners Region and splitting off from the heights that are rising from the Northern Plains eastward through the Great Lakes.
By this weekend our upper feature will organize across the Gulf Coast Region closing off four contours on the European, which is a well developed upper low. The model depiction below shows where this upper support will be located on Sunday Morning. Note the bright red shading across the Great Lakes? Heights will be rising which really slows this storm down even more.
By Sunday evening, a surface low will align with the upper lev features to pump deep moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic into the Southeast US. Some of this moisture will impact the Western Carolinas.
The exact positioning of the weather features will make a huge difference in the impacts locally. The European as shown above would suggest a significant rain event starting on Sunday and lasting into early next week, which for holiday travelers could be a big deal.
Other guidance we look at daily shows a less developed and more progressive (fast moving) that could result in little to no precipitation for the late weekend timeframe.
Needless to say the forecast for Sunday and Monday is still in flux and is subject to change!