Weekend Weather Roller-Coaster

Good Friday morning to everyone, high pressure that has resulted in the very nice weather the past two days is sliding east off the US East Coast. Surface wind flow will veer around to the south and southwest and this will set up a very mild weekend...




High temperatures for today is expected to reach the low 70's on average and for Saturday expected even more warmth as mid 70's will spread into the region from the south.


Clouds will slowly increase as a low pressure and frontal boundary will move into the Eastern third of the US by Saturday night.







This frontal boundary will spawn a few scattered rain showers late Saturday night and could persist through the morning hours of Sunday...as you can see on the image, the cold front will move through during he first half of he day. Clearing skies will take over Sunday afternoon, that said temps will remain mild through the day, in the mid 60's. All in all, the weekend does not look all that bad. It will be mild to warm with a roughly 12 hour window of precip at a time when few people will be outside. Rainfall amounts look to be light (.10 - .20 inch).







You would think a frontal passage would result in a nice and quiet start to the new week...however mother nature has other plans...




The region will be in the middle of a split-flow pattern, something that we have seen on a few occasions in 2019. The southern stream continues to be active. There is a strong piece of upper level energy "x" that is digging through the Four Corners Region by late Sunday Night. That configuration will help produce Gulf Coast low pressure...







Meanwhile, high pressure behind Sunday's frontal passage will take on a classic cold air damming signature. We look to be heading down the road of another multi-day period of cool, cloudy and damp conditions. Clouds will filter back in from the northeast on Monday and temperatures will be much colder, a good 20+ degrees below what you will have seen the day prior. Our current forecast is for upper 40's on Monday, we may have to adjust that down even lower when we get closer to Monday...


The most impactful part of this comes Monday night and Tuesday as both streams in the split-flow pattern will interact. Low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico will slowly move northeast to along the Southeast US coastline by Tuesday morning while high pressure to our north continues to provide a source of cold air. Infact the CAD event may strengthen due to the combined flow between the low and high pressures.



This will also lead to a quick return of moisture to the region. Exact low track is still in question at this point but chances are Monday Late Night-Tuesday looks cold and soggy. Models are deepening this storm off the South Carolina Coast to where this becomes a bona fide Nor'Easter. Wind, rain and coastal erosion could be an issue.





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