Winter-like cold to dominate the weather pattern this week...

Updated: Nov 26, 2018

Good Sunday afternoon to everyone, we hope that you have had a great Thanksgiving weekend with friends and family...

As we all attempt to get back into a regular routine, mother nature will continue to provide a weather pattern that is anything but normal. A cold week looks to be setting up across the Carolinas but thankfully it should be dry for most of the time. Looking at the water vapor imagery this afternoon a stout upper low across the Plains and Midwest is going to help drive a surface boundary into the eastern part of the country. Out ahead of the front some moisture is trying to move eastward, a lot of that being of Pacific origin.

The upper level energy will remain well north of the region meaning that any precipitation will be light in nature. A few showers are possible locally as early as tonight and lasting into the morning hours of Monday before drying out.

Your Monday is going to feature a classic winter season northwest flow pattern. For our friends in the mountains, your high temperature will be reached just after midnight tonight with a slow drop during the morning followed by a more precipitous drop later in the day.

Here outside of the mountains, after the precip moves through during the morning gusty northwest winds will provide a downslope effect across the Foothills and Western Piedmont. That will negate the cold air advecting in during the day. As you can see on the CommuterCast graphic there will be a slow rise through the early afternoon as the air is mixing efficiently. But once we get to about 4 pm look for temps to start its decline.

Snow showers will be flying in the mountains by late day tomorrow and will last through Monday night giving some areas up to 1 inch of snow. A couple stray flurries will likely translate over into the Globe, Jonas Ridge and Little Switzerland communities in our far northwest tier of the coverage area.

Cold air is going to be a dominant theme from Tuesday on thanks to Pacific-West Coast ridging and a large trough moving into the East. There are multiple pieces of upper level energy in this trough that will help to keep it charged up through the end of the week.

For us, this will mean mostly sunny conditions but temps will run a good 5-10 degrees below average. Daytime highs will struggle to reach the 50 degree mark with temps at or below freezing at night. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the coldest days of the week at this point...

Computer Model ensemble guidance

Computer Model Ensemble Guidance

Once we get to Thursday, our eastern trough will be kicking out into the Atlantic and behind it will be a fairly zonal flow. Temps will be slow to respond but hopefully by Friday will be getting back closer to late November averages. The zonal flow may also try to sneak a little moisture across the southern tier of the country. At the very least we should see increased cloud coverage at this point.

Meanwhile energy across California will begin to slide eastward, this looks to be our next significant precip maker next weekend.


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