PTC NINE DISCUSSION
THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 12th, 2019
An area of showers and thunderstorms have become better organized today and is on the verge of being our next tropical depression. Therefor the National Hurricane Center has started advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Northwest Bahamas, some of the same areas that were impacted by Dorian just over a week ago.
Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating the feature to determine if a low level center has formed sufficiently enough to make this a Depression. We may know the answer to that later tonight or on Friday.
PTC Nine is expected to organize more as we go into the weekend impacting the Bahamas and eventually sections of Florida. The forecast intensity and path has a lot of uncertainty right now due to the lack of a well-defined center. That is causing computer model guidance to produce a wide range of scenarios at this time.
Scroll down to the end of the briefing to see a few more of the products from the 5 pm advisory.
As far as the long term prospects for the Southeast US, it's too early to know definitively where PTC Nine is heading. Hopefully a bit more clarity will work into the models after tonight's Hurricane Hunter Mission.