Good evening to you and yours!
The clouds have rolled in preceding an impending shortwave trough that will dominate our weather from now until Wednesday night. Expect plenty of rain that will be particularly heavy between Wednesday noontime through 10 pm. We see this event being an "overachiever" dumping between 1 to 2 inches of rain over the area thanks to a bounty of moisture and energy. Temperatures with this event will maintain being mild with tonight into tomorrow's low barely dropping into the upper 40's, Wednesday's high topping out in the low 50's due to cloud coverage, and Wednesday into Thursday's overnight low in the upper 30's as cloud coverage decreases.
Thursday we get a breather in between setups where we will have a bit of sunshine, temperatures in the upper 40's, mild east northeasterly wind of about 7 mph.
Cloud coverage will increase again overnight into Friday stifling the low to the upper 30's as a robust, strengthening, full-latitude, and well defined "digging" trough forms it's center New Mexico. (Yes, New Mexico! This one's a biggun'!) As this digging trough intensifies over the following 24 - 36 hours into Saturday, marching all the way across the Plains the axis of the trough will start to knock on the western doors of the Appalachians. Here we will see our front stall over the mountains as the trough shifts from a positively tilted axis to a negatively tilted axis, indicating maturity which means that whatever it's capable of doing will be the maximum level of impact at this time. During the spring, summer, and fall this kind of event would be a strong severe weather outbreak, but with the winter in mind we will just see a bit of wind (25ish mph) and in this case rain. Unfortunately, we see this event being what we call a katafront which means that the precipitation will be ahead of and along the cold frontal line which, in our situation right now doesn't look good for any potential of snow- it's just too warm.
Let's get out of the weather wienie lingo and give you the timing, numbers, and impacts.
Friday day you can expect partly sunny skies, high in the low 50's, and precipitation chances increasing on Friday night to 50%. Overnight low bottoming out in the mid 40's.
Saturday will be less than favorable travelling conditions with rain in the forecast for the full day and night, overcast conditions, temperatures topping out in the low 60's due to warm air advection ahead of our cold front. Here is where our front is maturing. Saturday night into Sunday (Christmas Eve) morning we will see our low in the upper 40's and more rain. Christmas Eve will have plenty more rain in store for us as our trough begins to stumble it's way over the mountains. With the timing of this trough as it is right now we could possibly see the daily high for Sunday getting up the the low 50's, but once the temperatures fall on Sunday they will have a solid decline as the official passage of the cold front will be felt on the Sunday night into Monday (Christmas Day). Expect nightly lows to slide down to mid 30's overnight. Here it's possible to have the high country see a bit of mixture, but at this current moment we don't believe the freezing line will be far enough along to see any white on Christmas. There are select models and model runs that argue for a little bit of flurries, but none of it is consistent enough to make that call. More information on this in the days to follow.
Finally on Christmas morning we will see our precipitation chances drop down to 30% and the skies clear to a partly sunny day. Christmas day high temperature on the chillier side in the mid 40's. With a lack of cloud coverage the nightly low from the 25th to the 26th will drop to the mid 20's. Tuesday will be bright and sunny (what a relief!) with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low 40's.
Thank you for reading and have a blessed evening!