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Good Sunday Morning. This briefing is pertaining to the winter weather event that will likely affect the area on Monday Afternoon. A full weather briefing will be posted by Meteorologist Sinead Lockhart in a short while.
Overnight a weak low pressure will approach the area from the West before it dives South to the Gulf Coast. Precipitation will develop across the area Monday Afternoon. Temperatures will be cold enough to support a winter mix initially in all areas. Warm air will move North ahead of this low, causing any precipitation to change to rain Monday Night. Precipitation amounts will be very light. The main concern is for freezing mist/freezing rain. Along and North of I-40 the freezing rain could mix with some sleet or wet snowflakes. The reason for this briefing is because any amount of ice on roadway will create slick and dangerous conditions Monday Afternoon for those areas that remain below freezing. Currently models indicate Cleveland and Lincoln Counties will climb up to just above freezing. Areas along and North of I-40 could be locked in at or just below freezing the majority of the day. As moisture overruns the cold, dense, dry air at the surface it will allow for evaporational cooling. creating the potential for things to flash freeze in areas that do make it above freezing before precipitation to rise. Flash freezing occurs when moisture is present and the temperature drops below freezing quickly. This could cause major travel issues for the afternoon commute on Monday if precipitation develops. There is still uncertainty as to how much precipitation actually develops across the region. The NAM is dryer than the operational global models. I blended the Euro/GFS/NAM data from 00z and 06z runs. The blend produced temperatures at or just above freezing so it is going to be a close call as to which areas see the travel issues. If traveling Monday Afternoon slow down, give yourself extra travel time, and monitor the latest weather conditions. You could feasably be driving on wet roads one minuite and then frozen roads the next. That has the potential to be very disruptive even though less than a tenth of an inch of ice develops.
Next update will be tonight.
Foothills Weather Network