Good Sunday afternoon. The NWS currently has a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for our forecasting region which goes as follows:
355 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Elbert County in northeast Georgia, the piedmont of western North Carolina and the eastern Upstate and lower piedmont of South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Heavy rainfall may produce isolated flooding across the region today through tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will produce occasional cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds, especially this afternoon. Any heavier rainfall rates in thunderstorms may also worsen localized flooding problems. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. ..Monday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. Localized flooding issues could linger into Monday morning. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
In a nutshell we are far from being done with the heavy rains as strong, saturated southwesterly flow funnels in a "river" of precipitation over the region today. Temperatures outside are currently at a balmy mid 60's which does insinuate the right cocktail of possible thunderstorm(s) later this afternoon into tonight, but nothing suggests severity besides the quickly accumulating rainfall totals. Our waterways are already showing signs of minor flooding. Tonight on through Monday we have a cold front that will very slowly move into the area and stall for the day which will cool temperatures a bit (high around 60) and continue on with our rainy theme. Tuesday will be the start of when this rain event tapers off as precipitation probabilities drop to 30% for the daytime and we will begin to truly feel the impact of the cold frontal passage as our daily high isn't expected to climb above 50 despite the clouds dampening radiational cooling and diurnal fluctuations.
A surface high that dominates the southeastern US will be what will help and hinder the weather events that will take place for the week ahead. On Wednesday we will have a slight drying period with only a 30% chance of diurnally generated afternoon showers, mostly cloudy conditions, and temperatures back up into the 60's yet again. Thursday will be the peak of temperatures for the week as our "conveyor belt" of Gulf air expresses further with a daily high in the low 70's, more mostly cloudy skies, with more of the same diurnal afternoon showers.
This is where the end of reasonable forecasting confidence remains, but let's close up with a look at the current model suggestions for the weekend:
Friday and Saturday is when we see a possible slight shift in the weather pattern where a broad trough centered over Canada will have it's jet maximum splice through the Mid Atlantic. The GFS expresses a slight shortwave feature that will shoot a weak cold frontal boundary over the mountains while the Euro doesn't see this feature at all. Confidence on these days on exactly what to expect is low, but precipitation (30%) is involved.
Thank you for reading. Have a nice rest to your weekend and stay dry.