Happy Sunday to all. Currently we have some mostly overcast conditions and mild rain phasing through the forecasting area. Temperatures are on the cooler side from what we have seen the past couple of days. The further into our night as a cold front passes on through we see our precipitation probabilities will go up to 60%, 80% for Monday day and tapering off to 40% Monday night.
As the title of this weather briefing suggests, the week ahead has quite a bit of rain involved in it much like the weeks before. The cause of these rainy days is unlike the weeks before as we have had a slight south-southeasterly shift in the surface high and thusly will have more trough oriented events.
I find it best to discuss these things chronologically, so let's do so. As mentioned earlier we do have a cold front knocking on the doors of the Appalachians, pushing in colder air and more precipitation in the overnight and morning hours into Monday. Expect the overnight low to be less expressive (low 50's) as the passage won't fully make impact until after sunrise. Monday will be dreary with overcast conditions, solid but not severe rainfall, and diurnal high just at the 60 degree mark. As the night moves on our frontal passage will be in a fuller effect with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30's and partly cloudy conditions.
Tuesday will be a break in the rainy hustle with mostly sunny skies and a high around 60 degrees as a ridge very gently attempts to build over the area. This becomes interrupted as a rather strong and well developed cut off low bullishly forms and climbs over the Appalachians bringing in more rain for Wednesday and Thursday. This will "sucker punch" the high pressure that has held territory over our area and push it out of the way for the remainder of the week.
As for Friday through Sunday I see a couple of things happen. Our cut off low will march out to the Atlantic where it will begin to stall off the coastline. This should have us in the dry and consequently sunnier sector of the low for Friday and probably Saturday as well. Going into Sunday there appears to be something of a backdoor cold front that nudges in that could bring back in some clouds, but this a difficult to speculate situation as there might not be enough available moisture when the time comes to support this. For now we will forecast that Friday through Sunday will be mostly sunny, highs in the mid upper 50's, diurnal lows in the low 30's.
Thank you for reading. Have a great end to your weekend.