Good Sunday Morning everyone. I hope your weekend is going well. It’s going to be a beautiful day but it won’t last. A very unsettled pattern is going to continue this week. The fourth and fifth Nor’easter of the season are now in sight.
First off let’s talk about the pleasant weather for today. After a few storms last night skies are mostly clear across the foothills but remain mostly cloudy in the mountains. Temperatures indicate just that. Mid 60’s already east of the mountains while the mountains hold in the 40’s. Clouds will hang tough most of the day up the slopes. Ski conditions are perfect where the slopes remain open. With the current weather pattern they may be skiing into April.
To our West today low pressure is moving East through Colorado. This low will begin to tap into gulf moisture this afternoon. That moisture will surge North initially through the Arklatx creating storms and heavy rain through Arkansas, Oklahoma, Northeast Texast, and Kansas. Overnight tonight the low will be pushed east by a ridge of high pressure developing over the west coast. As it does it will tap more gulf moisture and surge it North and East. Scattered showers will develop through the early morning of Monday. It looks like right now that there will be a break in the rainfall during the Monday Morning Commute but by late morning more solid shield of light rain will move in.
At 5:00pm Monday the low pressure is deepinging while moving East over the Northern Alabama and Tennessee Line. Pressure is down to 996mb
Severe storms with damaging winds and large hail are developing back across Kentucky and Tennessee in response to this deepening low pressure. In response to that the National Weather Service Storm Preditictions Center has developed an “Enhanced Risk,” Risk Level 3 Out of 5, of severe storms over that area. The main threat will be tornados out there but again here locally at this point in the forecast no severe weather threat.
By predawn Tuesday Morning though these storms are making a push toward the mountains but away from the best dynamic. Storms will encounter more stable air from East Tennessee into North Carolina. By 2:00am Tuesday Morning the low pressure is starting to weaken and is centered somewhere between Knoxville and Chattanooga. A band of thunderstorms with heavy rain should then spread East into the NC Mountains and Foothills. These storms look like they will weaken right now and be non severe by the time they affect our area. Several factors working in our favor are that the low pressure arrives during non peak heating of the day, our atmosphere has been stabilized by off and on rain, and a weak wedge like cold pool is over our area. All of that is working against instability and that’s good news. I would expect some thunder and lightning early Tuesday Morning butnin our forecast area, right now i don’t see a huge severe weather threat.
This low will translation it’s energy to the coastl low that develops over the Virginia Tidewater by 2:00pm Tuesday. Our flow moves from SW to Northwest and precipitation ends except for the mountains. Low level Northwest flow strengthens off the Great Lakes into Tuesday Night. Rain will change over to wet snow above 4000ft first and then by Wednesday Morning snow levels should come down to the valley floor as that low deepens into a Nor’easter and races North. On it’s heals though another low pressure system develops over The Carolinas. Our flow changes from a Northwest to North Northeast. Moisture starts to fill in across the foothills. Profiles would support rain initially but then a changeover to snow is possible by the Wednesday Morning Commute. Right now the best forcing and lift remains up into Virgina and likewise the highest snow accumulations are up there. It’s too soon smto speculate on how much snow could fall in Virginia or locally. One hung is for sure Wednesday is going to be a cold, raw, blustery day. Snow still flying in the mountains. This is something we will watch and tweet over the next few forecast packages as things become clearer.
Additional storm systems look like they move in Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday. Plenty of time to watch those. Temps remain below normal through the period.