Good Thursday Morning. More rain on the way this evening but most will fall during the night. For our forecast area we are included in The Storm Predictions Center’s General Thunderstorm Risk, Risk level 1 Out of 5. However areas just East of us, along and southeast of I-85 are in a Marginal Risk, Risk level 2 Out of 5. We will watch this close. A couple of the thunderstorms may become severe. The main threats would be damaging winds and large hail during the early nighttime hours. Again that threat is South and East of I-85 for now. We will watch the atmosphere to see how it destabilizes today. In our area a couple fumbles of thunder appear possible but they should stay below severe criteria.
SPC Thunderstorm Outlook Through tonight as of 7am this morning. We will update this through the day.
Here is futurecast starting at 11am: Timestamp in top right.
Our ground is saturated so any rain will produce ponding of water on roadways quickly but streams and creeks will rise rather quickly, especially in areas that see the heavier rain with thunderstorms. Right now there isn’t a huge threat of flash flooding because most likely our total precipitation totals remain under flash flood guidance. Below are two of our near term models with their depiction of how much rain will fall. They have very different outcomes. Right now we are leaning toward a total in the middle of the two models. Upslope flow will be brief but likely be enough to over achief the NAM’s Scenario but with a quick moving system we think we will remain just under the HRRR scenario. I wouldn’t rule out some isolated and localized flash flooding though. Updates will follow through the day.